NFL Week 12 Picks: Game Odds, Props, Lines and Over-Under Predictions

Kristopher Knox@@kris_knoxFeatured ColumnistNovember 21, 2018

NEW ORLEANS, LA - NOVEMBER 18:  Drew Brees #9 of the New Orleans Saints throws the ball during a game against the Philadelphia Eagles at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on November 18, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana.  (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Week 12 of the 2018 NFL season is shaping up to be an exciting one. We have a trio of divisional matchups on Thanksgiving to kick things off and a total of eight divisional contests in all.

When division rivals face off, it's almost always intriguing. Teams know those inside their division far better than teams they seldom face, and this can result in close games even when one team is far better on paper than the other.

While not every divisional matchup this week carries a ton of playoff relevance, most do, and all carry a sense of unpredictability. This is why wagering in a rivalry-heavy week can be a bit hit-or-miss. We're here to help with our latest picks for Week 12.

We'll run down the latest lines and over/unders from OddsShark. We'll also make score predictions for each game and examine some of our top prop bets of the week.


NFL Week 12 Lines, Over/Unders and Predictions

Thursday, November 22

Chicago Bears (-3, 44) at Detroit Lions: Bears 30-20

Washington Redskins (+7.5, 40.5) at Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys 24-20

Atlanta Falcons (+13, 60) at New Orleans Saints: Saints 47-33

Sunday, November 25

Cleveland Browns (+3, 47.5) at Cincinnati Bengals: Browns 27-26

Seattle Seahawks (+3.5, 47.5) at Carolina Panthers: Seahawks 22-21

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 37.5) at Buffalo Bills: Jaguars 18-12

Oakland Raiders (+10.5, 43) at Baltimore Ravens: Ravens 26-17

San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 55) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs 31-27

New York Giants (+6, 46) at Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles 27-21

New England Patriots (-9.5, 46) at New York Jets: Patriots 35-21

Arizona Cardinals (+12, 45) at Los Angeles Chargers: Chargers 27-20

Miami Dolphins (+10, 50.5) at Indianapolis Colts: Colts 30-21

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 47) at Denver Broncos: Steelers 24-17

Green Bay Packers (+3.5, 48) at Minnesota Vikings: Packers 26-25

Monday, November 26

Tennessee Titans (+6, 41.5) at Houston Texans: Texans 28-24


Week 12 Props

Drew Brees Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes

The New Orleans Saints may have become more of a running team with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara over the last couple years, but they still boast one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL in Drew Brees.

Brees is exactly who the Atlanta Falcons will be trying to stop on Thursday night.

"It's extremely challenging," Falcons defensive end Brooks Reed said, per D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "We're up to the challenge."

While the Falcons may be mentally up to the task of slowing Brees, their defensive numbers suggest they won't. Atlanta ranks 29th in both passing yards (284.1) and points (27.6) allowed per game this season.

This is why we like the over for Brees and the over/under of 2.5 passing touchdowns. Brees has thrown for at least three touchdowns in each of his last three games and has done so six times this season. He'll make it seven against a bad Falcons defense on Thursday.


Kenny Golladay Over 77.5 Yards Receiving

We don't like the Detroit Lions over the Chicago Bears on Thursday for a couple of reasons. For one, Chicago is the superior team and has an elite-level defense. Secondly, the Lions are dealing with injuries for both running back Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones.

Neither would have been available if the Lions had practiced Monday, according to Kyle Meinke of MLive.com.

If Detroit is without Johnson and Jones, it is going to have to lean heavily on both the passing game and wideout Kenny Golladay. This is why we like the over on Golladay's over/under of 77.5 yards receiving.

While Chicago's defense is capable of harassing the quarterback and making big plays, it doesn't always shut down opposing receivers. Stefon Diggs, for example, racked up 126 yards and a touchdown last week. We don't think Golladay will quite hit that mark, but he should approach 100 yards.


49ers and Buccaneers Over 27.5 First-Half Points

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Unless you're a San Francisco 49ers fan or a Tampa Bay Buccaneers diehard, you might need a little extra incentive to sit through their Sunday matchup. We'd suggest finding it in the over of the 27.5 first-half over/under.

The reason here is fairly simple. Both of these defenses are terrible. The 49ers are allowing an average of 26.6 points per game, sixth-most in the NFL. Tampa is allowing an average of 32.9 points per game, most in the league.

In addition, the Buccaneers have some tremendous offensive weapons like DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans and O.J. Howard. The 49ers aren't as loaded, but they can move the ball with guys like Matt Breida and George Kittle.

Seeing each team score a pair of touchdowns before the intermission seems more than reasonable here.