NFL Week 12 Predictions: Early Projections for Vegas' Odds, Lines and Spreads

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistNovember 19, 2018

ATLANTA, GA - NOVEMBER 18: Ezekiel Elliott #21 of the Dallas Cowboys carries the ball during the third quarter against DeVondre Campbell #59 of the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on November 18, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

The indulgence of the NFL in Week 12 begins before most families sit down for Thanksgiving dinner. 

The three-game holiday slate kicks off a week in which a handful of teams will be favored by double digits. 

New Orleans, Baltimore and the Los Angeles Chargers opened as favorites of 10 or more points, and there are a few other favorites, like Dallas and New England, who could win by that amount. 

The majority of the favored teams in Week 12 are playing at home, and only one of the four road favorites has a line of fewer than five points. 


Week 12 Schedule and Odds

Thursday, November 22

Chicago (-3) at Detroit (12:30 p.m., CBS) 

Washington at Dallas (-5.5) (4:30 p.m., Fox) 

Atlanta at New Orleans (-10) (8:20 p.m., NBC) 


Sunday, November 25

Jacksonville (-5) at Buffalo (1 p.m., CBS) 

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-3) (1 p.m., CBS) 

New England (-9) at New York Jets (1 p.m., CBS) 

Oakland at Baltimore (-11) (1 p.m., CBS) 

New York Giants at Philadelphia (-6.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

San Francisco at Tampa Bay (-3) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Seattle at Carolina (-3) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Arizona at Los Angeles Chargers (-11.5) (4:05 p.m., Fox) 

Miami at Indianapolis (-8) (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Denver (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Green Bay at Minnesota (-5.5) (8:20 p.m., NBC) 


Monday, November 26

Tennessee at Houston (-4.5) (8:15 p.m., ESPN) 

All Times ET. Odds obtained from OddsShark.


Odds Projections

Ravens, Chargers End Up As Heaviest Favorites 

The two teams in control of the AFC wild-card positions are safe bets to win in Week 12 against weaker opposition. 

Fresh off a victory in Lamar Jackson's first start under center, the Ravens host Oakland in a game in which they opened as an 11-point favorite. 

The Chargers face one of the other teams in contention for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft, the Arizona Cardinals. 

Anthony Lynn's team is favored by 11.5 points, but the number could be boosted in the coming days. 

Kelvin Kuo/Associated Press

It's fair to think bettors throwing down early money on these two games won't show much faith in Oakland and Arizona, and that's understandable given how poor both teams have looked. 

Another line to keep an eye on comes from the NFC South clash between New Orleans and Atlanta, as the Saints opened as a 10-point favorite. 

While the number could go up before Thanksgiving night, it won't get as high as the lines in favor of the Ravens and Chargers due to the short amount of time leading up to the game.


Take The On-Fire Cowboys On Thanksgiving

The Dallas Cowboys were going to have our undivided attention in Week 12 regardless of when they played. 

But since the Cowboys, who have won their last two games, play Thursday afternoon, there will be more eyes than expected on one of the rising teams in the league. 

Thursday presents the most important challenge of the season for the Cowboys, as they take on NFC East leader Washington. 

As a 5.5-point favorite at the beginning of the week, the Cowboys already have the respect of the oddsmakers, and the line could blossom with the Redskins starting Colt McCoy at quarterback in place of the injured Alex Smith. 

John Amis/Associated Press

Although McCoy is familiar with the Washington system, he hadn't thrown 12 passes in a game since December 7, 2014, in a loss to the then-St. Louis Rams, before entering Sunday's loss to Houston. 

McCoy will eventually hit his stride in the Washington system and keep the Redskins in the mix for the NFC East title, but it will take a week or two for him to get fully acclimated to game speed. 

With the third-best defense in the NFL sure to contain McCoy and running back Adrian Peterson, the Redskins won't be able to compete with the red-hot Cowboys. 

The difference-maker in the NFC East showdown will be Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott, who has 273 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in his last two games. 

In addition to thriving in the running game, Elliott will link up with quarterback Dak Prescott, like he has on 13 occasions during his team's winning streak, to be a threat in the passing game. 

The Thanksgiving victory for the Cowboys will get rid of a few concerning holiday trends, as it will end a run of three losses in the last four Turkey Day games, and it will be the first Thanksgiving game in Dallas won by the Cowboys decided by more than seven points since 2009. 


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