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NFL Predictions Week 11: Full Projections, Odds, Highlighting Top Fantasy Stars
November 17, 2018
Every so often, an NFL game develops into a fantasy football goldmine.
For example, the New Orleans Saints beat the New York Giants, 52-49 on November 1, 2015. Six players had at least 60 receiving yards and one touchdown, and that doesn't include the Giants' Dwayne Harris, who caught two touchdown passes.
If you have exposure to a similar game in a given week, then chances are you're picking up the fantasy win. If you're out of luck and your opponent has players from that one, then you have next to no shot.
Kansas City Chiefs' trip to face the Los Angeles Rams offers the best chance of a shootout in Week 11, but we'll take a look at a less obvious candidate below in the midst of discussing fantasy stars and providing odds, per OddsShark, and picks for the gameweek.
You can also find some projected totals (using point-per-reception scoring) for predicted fantasy stars. Yardage totals listed for running backs are from scrimmage (rushing and receiving combined).
Odds and Picks
Carolina Panthers (-4.5, 49.5 O/U) at Detroit Lions: CAR 34, DET 13
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (no line): BAL 28, CIN 20
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 49.5): DAL 24, ATL 19
Houston Texans (-3, 42.5) at Washington Redskins: HOU 13, WSH 12
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 46.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars: PIT 27, JAX 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (-2.5, 52.5): NYG 41, TB 34
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 50.5): IND 28, TEN 16
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 45.5): LAC 31, DEN 10
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5, 41): ARI 24, OAK 6
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 56): NO 37, PHI 31
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 44.5): CHI 27, MIN 20
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 63): KC 48, LAR 45
Top Fantasy Stars (20 Projected Points or Higher)
1. Los Angeles Rams WR Brandin Cooks (vs. Kansas City Chiefs): 10 REC, 180 YDS, 2 TD (40 points)
2. New York Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers): 9 REC, 180 YDS, 2 TD (39 points)
3. Arizona Cardinals RB David Johnson (vs. Oakland Raiders): 7 REC, 190 YDS, 2 TD (38 points)
4. Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill (at Los Angeles Rams): 8 REC, 170 YDS, 2 TD (37 points)
5. Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton (at Detroit Lions): 320 YDS (70 rushing), 4 TD (2 rushing): 37 points
6. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (at Los Angeles Rams): 375 YDS, 5 TD (1 rushing), 1 INT (36 points)
7. Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff (vs. Kansas City Chiefs): 400 YDS, 5 TD (36 points)
8. Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley (vs. Kansas City Chiefs): 4 REC, 140 YDS, 3 TD (36 points)
9. Philadelphia Eagles TE Zach Ertz (at New Orleans Saints): 10 REC, 140 YDS, 2 TD (36 points)
10. New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas (vs. Philadelphia Eagles): 9 REC, 120 YDS, 2 TD (33 points)
11. New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara (vs. Philadelphia Eagles): 5 REC, 140 YDS, 2 TD (31 points)
12. Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey (at Detroit Lions): 5 REC, 140 YDS, 2 TD (31 points)
13. Los Angeles Chargers RB Melvin Gordon (vs. Denver Broncos): 5 REC, 130 YDS, 2 TD (30 points)
14. Minnesota Vikings WR Adam Thielen (at Chicago Bears): 11 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD (30 points)
15. New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees (vs. Philadelphia Eagles): 350 YDS, 4 TD (30 points)
16. New York Giants QB Eli Manning (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers): 350 YDS, 4 TD (30 points)
17. Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott (at Atlanta Falcons): 3 REC, 140 YDS, 2 TD (29 points)
18. Jacksonville Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers): 3 REC, 140 YDS, 2 TD (29 points)
19. Los Angeles Rams WR Robert Woods (vs. Kansas City Chiefs): 9 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD (28 points)
20. Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (at Los Angeles Rams): 6 REC, 90 YDS, 2 TD (27 points)
21. Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz (at New Orleans Saints): 350 YDS (25 rushing), 3 TD (27.5 points)
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (at New York Giants): 375 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT (27 points)
23. Chicago Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (vs. Minnesota Vikings): 275 YDS (50 rushing), 3 TD (1 rushing), 2 INT (26 points)
24. Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck (vs. Tennessee Titans): 325 YDS (25 rushing): 3 TD, 1 INT (25.5 points)
25. New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers): 6 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD (25 points)
26. Atlanta Falcons WR Julio Jones (vs. Dallas Cowboys): 8 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD (25 points)
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (at New York Giants): 8 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD (25 points)
28. Houston Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins (at Washington Redskins): 8 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD (24 points)
29. Pittsburgh Steelers RB James Conner (at Jacksonville Jaguars): 5 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD (24 points)
30. Chicago Bears RB Tarik Cohen (vs. Minnesota Vikings): 6 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD (24 points)
31. Kansas City Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt (at Los Angeles Rams): 5 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD (24 points)
32. Tennessee Titans RB Dion Lewis (at Indianapolis Colts): 7 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD (23 points)
33. Baltimore Ravens WR John Brown (vs. Cincinnati Bengals): 5 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD (23 points)
34. Denver Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders (at Los Angeles Chargers): 7 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD (23 points)
35. Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen (vs. Denver Broncos): 8 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD (23 points)
36. Philadelphia Eagles WR Golden Tate (at New Orleans Saints): 8 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD (23 points)
37. Dallas Cowboys WR Amari Cooper (at Atlanta Falcons): 7 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD (22 points)
38. Pittsburgh Steelers WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (at Jacksonville Jaguars): 7 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD (22 points)
39. Indianapolis Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (vs. Tennessee Titans): 6 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD (22 points)
40. Minnesota Vikings WR Stefon Diggs (at Chicago Bears): 8 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD (22 points)
41. Los Angeles Chargers QB Philip Rivers (vs. Denver Broncos): 300 YDS, 3 TD (22 points)
42. Arizona Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald (vs. Oakland Raiders): 7 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD (22 points)
43. Cincinnati Bengals WR Tyler Boyd (at Baltimore Ravens): 6 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD (21 points)
44. New York Giants WR Sterling Shepard (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers): 6 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD (20 points)
45. Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon (at Baltimore Ravens): 4 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD (20 points)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allow a league-high 32.3 points per game. As if their defense didn't have it hard enough, the Bucs will be without defensive end Vinny Curry, linebacker Lavonte David, safety Justin Evans and cornerback M.J. Stewart on Sunday at the Giants. All of them are listed as out on the injury report.
Although New York's offense has struggled this year (26th in points per game), there isn't a better offensive matchup in the NFL than facing the Bucs, who have allowed 40 or more points in three of their nine games this year.
Expect some substantial offensive games from a few Giants, with wideout Odell Beckham Jr. being the likeliest candidate to star.
Per Pro Football Reference, Tampa Bay has allowed the most adjusted passing yards per attempt, the highest pass-completion rate and the highest quarterback rating. The Bucs also have given up the most touchdowns (23) and picked off the fewest passes (one).
Football Outsiders also highlights that the Bucs also allow the third-most receiving yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers.
Long story short, Tampa Bay's defense has been the worst in football, and it will be shorthanded Sunday while facing one of the best wideouts in the league in Beckham.
For the season, OBJ has 65 catches, 858 yards and four touchdowns. He could easily find himself with more than 1,000 receiving yards after Sunday's game.
Other Giants could have great afternoons as well. Connected with Beckham, quarterback Eli Manning may have his best individual performance of 2018. If the Bucs try to key in on stopping Beckham, No. 2 wideout Sterling Shepard could find more room to roam. He's had seven or more targets in seven of nine games this year.
Finally, running back Saquon Barkley could be a problem. He has 1,116 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns and is now facing a team that has faltered against adept pass-catching running backs like the Chicago Bears' Tarik Cohen (seven catches, 121 yards, one touchdown) and the New Orleans Saints' Alvin Kamara (nine catches, 112 yards, one touchdown).
On the Bucs' side, keep an eye out for wide receiver Mike Evans and tight end O.J. Howard.
While Evans only has four catches in his past two games, he's still ninth in the league in receiving yards with 837. Also, the game flow might mean Tampa Bay has to play catchup (or engage in an offensive shootout) with a Giants offense that can drop 40-plus points here.
In that case, Evans might be busy as quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick goes to the air far more often.
Howard is one of the most efficient tight ends in the league, and he averages 16.8 yards per reception. The owner of a 69 percent catch rate, Howard has 29 catches, 487 yards and five scores on the season.
The 23-year-old has a good matchup against New York's defense, which just struggled against another talented tight end in the San Francisco 49ers' George Kittle. The ex-Iowa star had nine catches for 83 yards on Monday.
Fitzpatrick has thrown for 400-plus yards four times this season, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him do so a fifth time Sunday. He leads the league in yards per attempt with 9.8 and has benefitted from the change in play-callers to offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who clearly has no qualms about airing it out.
The Bucs-Giants game could feature a lot of fireworks. We'll soon see whether that call comes to fruition.