Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Minnesota Vikings own the recent rivalry with the Chicago Bears, winning six of the last seven meetings straight up including a sweep of the season series last year. But the Bears are 4-3 against the spread over that span, keeping several games close as underdogs. Chicago will be favored, though, for Sunday night's key Black-and-Blue clash with the Vikings at Soldier Field.

NFL point spread: The Bears opened as three-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 33.0-14.3 Bears (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota bounced back from that loss to New Orleans three weeks ago to beat Detroit two weeks ago 24-9. The Vikings then enjoyed last week off.

Minnesota drove the opening possession of the game against the Lions 65 yards to a touchdown, let Detroit get within 7-6, then used a 17-0 run spanning the halves to take control on its way toward the victory and the cover as a five-point favorite.

On the day, the Vikings out-rushed the Lions 128-66, while the defense scored a touchdown of its own, held the Detroit offense out of the end zone all day and recorded a team-record 10 sacks.

Minnesota has now out-gained each of its last five opponents, going 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS along the way.

At 5-3-1 overall, the Vikings trail the first-place Bears by just a half-game in the NFC North, and they own the No. 6 spot in the NFC playoff standings.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago is 3-0 both SU and ATS its last three times out, after dispatching of those same Lions last week 34-22. The Bears drove their first three possessions of the game 75, 91 and 71 yards to touchdowns, turned a takeaway into another touchdown and led 26-7 at the half. They then pushed that advantage to 34-10 before allowing Detroit to score 12 meaningless points in the fourth quarter, creating a misleading final score.

Chicago also held on for the cover as a seven-point favorite.

On the day the Bears out-gained the Lions 402-305, and most of the yardage the Chicago defense allowed came in garbage time. The Bears also won the turnover battle 3-0.

Chicago has now won its last three games by an average score of 33-14. At 6-3 the Bears lead the NFC North by a half-game over Minnesota, and they own the No. 3 spot in the NFC playoff standings.

Smart betting pick

The Vikings are out-rushing opponents this season by three yards per game, but Chicago is plus-36 in per-game rushing yards. And teams that win the ground battles are 108-38 SU and 103-41 ATS so far this NFL season. The smart money here bets the Bears.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in seven of the Vikings' last nine games vs. the Bears.

The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road vs. the Bears.

The Bears are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games at home vs. teams with winning records.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.