England V South Africa: The Selectorial Headache

How many times in the next month will Geoff Miller and his fellow selectors have to utter the increasingly worn words 'It's a nice problem to have!' in response to probing media questions about England's lineup?

The first Test against South Africa starts in just over a month at Lords, and whilst the problem of which eleven players will walk out onto the field is a nice one, it doesn't make it any easier to solve.

England look almost certain to come away with back-to-back series wins for the first time since 2005. No mean feat, certainly, but the same eleven that has been picked for five consecutive Tests have not been firing on all cylinders by any means.

The bowling has been generally good, but with the likes of Andrew Flintoff returning to fitness and Simon Jones beginning to find some real form at Worcestershire, it is by no means guaranteed that the same bowlers will line up against the Proteas.

The batting, on the other hand, has been mediocre at best, and without timely centuries from Vaughan, Strauss and Pietersen in the three Tests respectively, the series may well have been still in the balance at this point in time. Barring some sudden finding of form in the one day series, one or both of Ian Bell and Paul Collingwood looks likely to miss out.

Probably the main thing the selectors will look at, and which will significantly affect their team selection, will be the overall balance of the side. Do they go with four bowlers or five? If they take the first option, don't be surprised to see one of Anderson or Broad dropped to make way for Andrew Flintoff, provided he is fit.

If they take the second, both Bell and Collingwood may well be dropped.

However, the selectors' inclinations towards continuity must be taken into account. Even if Flintoff is fit, they may well choose to go with the same bowling attack at Lords and leave Freddie out, perhaps plumping instead for Essex's Ravi Bopara as a fifth bowler.

There are, therefore, three possible lineups that the selectors could choose at this point in time. They are:

Four bowlers	Five bowlers	The "tried and tested"
1. Strauss	1. Strauss	1. Strauss
2. Cook	2. Cook	2. Cook
3. Vaughan	3. Vaughan	3. Vaughan
4. Pietersen	4. Pietersen	4. Pietersen
5. Collingwood / Bell	5. Bopara	5. Bell
6. Bopara	6. Ambrose	6. Collingwood / Bopara
7. Ambrose	7. Flintoff	7. Ambrose
8. Flintoff	8. Broad	8. Broad
9. Broad / Anderson	9. Sidebottom	9. Sidebottom
10. Sidebottom	10. Anderson / S. Jones	10. Anderson
11. Panesar	11. Panesar	11. Panesar

The top four are a certainty, one would imagine (barring injuries). Given his current performances, it seems an pretty good bet that Bopara will be recalled to the side at the expense of either Bell or Collingwood.

The main question is where does a fit Flintoff slot in - if at all? Many people, no doubt, will say that Flintoff does not deserve a place until he has proven his fitness and his form with the bat, but he is an enticing prospect to have as part of a five man bowling attack.

Also, with Broad showing his ability with the bat, an England team with only five genuine batsmen and three 'all-rounders' in Ambrose, Flintoff and Broad looks almost perfectly balanced.

Six months ago, a five man bowling attack would have involved Sidebottom batting at seven, with four genuine bunnies in Hoggard, Harmison, Anderson and Panesar below him - a very long and fragile tail!

It remains to be seen who the selectors will choose to bowl. Even after his potentially match-winning 7/43 in the first innings of the current Test, Anderson is still not a safe bet. He continues to look like cannon-fodder when the ball does not swing - as his career economy in Tests of 3.84 shows, and unless he gains more control, in my opinion at least he is likely to remain a bit-part player for England.

Simon Jones or even Matthew Hoggard could easily slot in in his place, and even Stuart Broad cannot be guaranteed a place, as his bowling has not yet displayed the match-winning incisiveness of the likes of Sidebottom.

The most likely option is probably one which involves minimal change. Although I disagree with it, I think the selectors will keep the same bowling attack and the same balance. They will want to keep faith with an attack which, to be fair to them, are winning Test matches, even if New Zealand are not much better than a county side.

However, a fully fit and firing Freddie Flintoff would certainly give them a selectorial headache!