NFL Predictions Week 10: Final Odds Projections and Fantasy Stars to Watch

Zach Buckley@@ZachBuckleyNBANational NBA Featured ColumnistNovember 10, 2018

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes warms up before an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Nov. 4, 2018, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/David Richard)
David Richard/Associated Press

Even though there's just one game in the books, it feels safe to say Week 10 will be a busy one in the NFL.

Thursday night's battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers provided fireworks galore.

Wednesday witnessed the return of Dez Bryant, but Friday saw him sidelined indefinitely with what's feared to be a torn Achilles. Sunday will see dynamic Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette back in action for the first time since September.

If it feels like there's a ton going on, just remember—there are 13 games on the docket between now and Monday night.

We're plenty busy ourselves here, examining the latest odds, per OddsShark, providing against-the-spread predictions and spotlighting three fantasy studs.

                       

Week 10 Odds and Score Predictions

Sunday, November 11

Detroit Lions (+6.5) at Chicago Bears: Bears 27, Lions 17

Arizona Cardinals (+16.5) at Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs 35, Cardinals 13

New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans: Patriots 28, Titans 20

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals: Saints 38, Bengals 27

Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Cleveland Browns: Falcons 31, Browns 20

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Indianapolis Colts: Jaguars 17, Colts 13

Washington Redskins (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buccaneers 24, Redskins 20

Buffalo Bills (+7) at New York Jets: Jets 13, Bills 9

Los Angeles Chargers (-10) at Oakland Raiders: Chargers 31, Raiders 10

Miami Dolphins (+10) at Green Bay Packers: Packers 23, Dolphins 14

Seattle Seahawks (+9.5) at Los Angeles Rams: Rams 34, Seahawks 24

Dallas Cowboys (+7) at Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20

                     

Monday, November 12

New York Giants (+3) at San Francisco 49ers: 49ers 24, Giants 17

                     

Fantasy Stars To Watch

Patrick Mahomes vs. Arizona Cardinals

Between the point spread in this contest and the fact that Patrick Mahomes is vying to be the unanimous fantasy MVP, you are forgiven for assuming the quarterback could be in for a monster outing. The stat sheet, however, isn't so sure.

While the Arizona Cardinals have been ripped apart by opposing running backs (second-most fantasy points allowed), this defense has been stingier than any other unit against quarterbacks.

To be clear, that's a tad misleading. It's not that Arizona is elite against the pass—16th in yards per attempt and 25th in completion percentage—but rather this club falls so far behind in games that opponents stop attacking through the air.

Only six teams have faced fewer pass attempts than Arizona (261). And of the Cardinals' six losses, four have been decided by double digits and two have featured deficits greater than 30 points.

The challenge for Mahomes, then, is to pile on the production early. Fortunately, that's a strength of this attack. No team averages more points in the first quarter (9.1) or the first half (19.2) than the Kansas City Chiefs, per Team Rankings.

                        

Leonard Fournette vs. Indianapolis Colts

Knock on wood, but it sounds like Fournette is as healthy as he's been all season.

"So far, no issues," Jags coach Doug Marrone told reporters Friday. "We'll see on Sunday, but he has done everything that we have asked him to do. No setbacks. No nothing. Right now, he's completely healthy—today, at this time."

Does that make it fair to call Fournette a fantasy stud when his two-game totals this year include only 71 rushing yards on 20 attempts and four catches for 19 yards? It does when you factor in the damage he did last season.

Fournette tallied 10 touchdowns in 13 contests as a rookie. He rushed for 1,040 yards (at 3.9 yards per clip) and collected 302 yards on 36 receptions. Only seven running backs had more scrimmage yards than Fournette's 1,342 last season, and all seven played at least 15 games.

But considering how little he's been able to produce this time around, his owners are frustrated.

It took a healthy investment to get him (14.0 average draft position on Yahoo), so he's racing against the clock to recoup as much value as possible. This should be a good test, too. The Colts aren't great against the run, but they're not bad, either (18th-fewest fantasy points allowed, 19th in rushing yards per game).

                          

Jarvis Landry vs. Atlanta Falcons

While Jarvis Landry may not have the production of an elite fantasy star (23rd in receiving yards, two touchdowns in nine games), he has the opportunity volume of a No. 1 option. Only Minnesota Vikings breakout star Adam Thielen has been targeted more often than Landry, who's had 101 passes come his direction on the season and seven games with double-digit targets.

Considering Landry changed teams this summer and has already worked with two quarterbacks with the Browns (first Tyrod Taylor and now rookie Baker Mayfield), it's hard to complain about the numbers. In fact, Landry should be making fantasy owners quite happy in Week 10 with a favorable matchup against the Atlanta Falcons' leaky pass defense.

The Falcons have surrendered the seventh-most passing yards overall (2,434) and fourth-most per game (304). The 18 touchdowns they have allowed are tied for sixth-most. Add it all up, and this unit has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Six receivers have been targeted at least 10 times against them. The average output of those pass-catchers is 8.8 receptions for 105 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.

Sniffing the end zone could do a lot for Landry's value, but based on his involvement and opponent, this could be a big outing even without a score.

                  

Fantasy scoring information obtained via Yahoo Sports.

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