NFL Picks Week 10: Game-by-Game Advice for Current Vegas Spreads

We're a little more than halfway through the 2018 NFL season, and we're finally getting an idea of how strong each team actually is.

The Pittsburgh Steelers team that was struggling early is coming together at just the right time. Those Detroit Lions that made Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady appear pedestrian earlier in the season? They're not a playoff team. The New England Patriots that were 1-2 and struggling to identify offensive weapons are now 7-2 and rolling thanks to the likes of Josh Gordon and Cordarrelle Patterson.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense? Yeah, it's still nigh unstoppable.

The teams we saw in the first month of the season aren't the same ones we're seeing here in the third, and that's important to remember when predicting outcomes.

That's what we're going to do for an exciting Week 10 slate that kicks off with the Steelers and Carolina Panthers on Thursday night. We'll examine the full schedule, the latest lines and over/unders from OddsShark.com and make score predictions for each game.

Carolina Panthers (+4, 51.5 O/U) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have shown improvement on both defense and in the running game in recent weeks, and that's made them difficult to match up with. However, the Panthers are exactly the kind of team that can match up with them.

The Panthers can control the tempo of the game with their second-ranked rushing attack (143.9 yards per game) and keep the Steelers offense out of rhythm. A few big plays from Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey should be enough for Carolina to win a close one.

Prediction: Panthers 22, Steelers 20

Detroit Lions (+6.5, 45 O/U) at Chicago Bears

The Detroit Lions are coming off back-to-back decisive losses, thanks largely to ineffectiveness in the ground game. When Kerryon Johnson and the rushing attack are able to get going, Detroit's offense can keep opposing defenses off-balance. When they don't, Detroit is forced to lean on Matthew Stafford—a prospect that is less appealing with Golden Tate now out of town.

The Chicago Bears have the league's third-ranked run defense (84.9 yards per game allowed) and will be able to derail Detroit's game plan. Chicago will out-grind the Lions in a defensive battle.

Prediction: Bears 23, Lions 17

Arizona Cardinals (+16.5, 50 O/U) at Kansas City Chiefs

The Arizona Cardinals got their second win of the season before hitting the bye in Week 9. They'll have some momentum heading into this game but it won't be enough.

The Kansas City Chiefs just dropped 37 points on the Cleveland Browns on the road. They won't need that many to beat the Cardinals.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Cardinals 18

New England Patriots (-6.5, No O/U Listed) at Tennessee Titans

The Patriots just keep finding guys to produce alongside Tom Brady on offense. Gordon is looking like New England's No. 1 receiver, Patterson is emerging as a capable running back and James White is as capable a receiving back as anyone in the game. The Patriots have all the tools needed to overcome an aggressive Tennessee Titans defense.

"It's good to be an aggressive defense, but also if you get too aggressive," Brady said on WEEI's Kirk & Callahan, per Hayden Bird of Boston.com. "That's when offenses take advantage."

Expect the Patriots to also take advantage of a Titans passing attack (173.0 yards per game) that regularly can't get off the ground.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Titans 18

New Orleans Saints (-4, 54 O/U) at Cincinnati Bengals

The New Orleans Saints just dropped 45 points on a Los Angeles Rams defense full of playmakers. It should be able to top 50 against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that allows a league-high 447.8 yards per game.

With players like A.J. Green, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd on offense, the Bengals have some offensive punch. The Saints will pull away late, but there should be plenty of scoring in this game.

Prediction: Saints 42, Bengals 33

Atlanta Falcons (-4, 51 O/U) at Cleveland Browns

Mark Tenally/Associated Press

The Browns finally decided to use running back Duke Johnson on offense, and it helped the offense keep pace with the Chiefs, for a time. The problem is that the Browns are dealing with a number of injuries on defense, including first-round rookie Denzel Ward.

"We'll see how long he's out," interim head coach Gregg Williams said of Ward, per Mark Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com.

Having a banged-up defense that is missing its No. 1 corner isn't a good proposition with the Atlanta Falcons coming to town. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Co. are hitting their stride, and they're meeting the Browns at a most opportune time.

Prediction: Falcons 30, Browns 23

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 46.5 O/U) at Indianapolis Colts

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense hasn't been playing quite as bad as some recent scores would indicate. The problem has been opposing teams getting easy scoring opportunities from Blake Bortles mistakes.

However, the Jaguars run defense (123.2 yards per game allowed) is a problem. The Indianapolis Colts, who have amassed 200 rushing yards in back-to-back games, can take advantage of that.

Don't expect Bortles mistakes to go away. Do expect the Colts to pull out a close one.

Prediction: Colts 24, Jaguars 22

Washington Redskins (+2.5, 51.5 O/U) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Washington Redskins couldn't get their run game going against the Falcons last week, and it allowed Atlanta to have too many chances on offense. If the run game doesn't get going against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have their own explosive passing attack, this one could get out of hand too.

Washington should be able to control the pace, though, with a large dose of Adrian Peterson and some rhythmic short passing. If the Redskins can keep its defense off the field for long stretches, they'll find enough success against the league's worst scoring defense (34.4 points per game allowed) to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Redskins 28, Buccaneers 26

Buffalo Bills (+7.5, 37 O/U) at New York Jets

The Buffalo Bills offense is a complete disaster. Rookie quarterback Josh Allen may return to the field against the New York Jets, but he isn't going to salvage things.

If we do get an Allen-Sam Darnold matchup, the game will likely be won by the quarterback who makes the fewest mistakes. That'll be Darnold, but it'll be close, and this game will be ugly.

Prediction: Jets 18, Bills 13

Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5, 50.5 O/U) at Oakland Raiders

The last time the Los Angeles Chargers and Oakland Raiders met, the Chargers walked away with an easy 26-10 victory. Though that game was in Carson, where the Chargers currently play, it felt an awful lot like a Raiders home game.

This is a Raiders home game, but that isn't going to matter much. The Chargers are surging and playing like a dangerous playoff contender. The Raiders have all but officially quit on the season.

This is a division rivalry game, and pride will allow Oakland to keep things close early, but it isn't going to last.

Prediction: Chargers 28, Raiders 17

Miami Dolphins (+9.5, 47.5 O/U) at Green Bay Packers

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

The Miami Dolphins haven't been a thing of beauty with Brock Osweiler under center, and it appears he'll be under center against the Green Bay Packers. According to Omar Kelly of the Sun-Sentinel, Miami is likely to keep Ryan Tannehill on the bench until the Week 11 bye.

The Packers lost three defensive starters to injuries on Monday night, and their defense may not be at full strength against the Dolphins. That could help Miami stay in the game, but in a matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Osweiler, expect Green Bay to pull away late.

Prediction: Packers 30, Dolphins 21

Seattle Seahawks (+10, 51.5 O/U) at Los Angeles Rams

We saw that the Los Angeles Rams aren't invincible last week. The Rams were finally handed a loss, but it was dished out by the Saints and one of the top offenses in the league. The Seattle Seahawks don't have that, and they could be without starting running back Chris Carson, who aggravated his hip injury in Week 9.

"I talked to Chris, it's about like it was last week," head coach Pete Carroll said, via the team's official website.

The Rams won a close one the last time these two teams met. In the rematch, things won't come down to the wire.

Prediction: Rams 31, Seahawks 23

Dallas Cowboys (+5.5, No O/U Listed) at Philadelphia Eagles

The addition of Amari Cooper does add a little punch to the Dallas Cowboys passing attack, and with a balanced offense, Dallas can be dangerous. However, the Eagles added their own offensive reinforcements by trading for Golden Tate.

This is going to be a fun matchup with two solid defenses, two physical offenses and two dynamic quarterbacks. The team that makes the fewest mistakes will win, and we're going to take Carson Wentz over Dak Prescott in that department.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Cowboys 21

New York Giants (+3, 43.5 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers

The New York Giants have a ton of offensive weapons. They also have a horrendous pass-blocking line and a quarterback in Eli Manning on the edge of his career cliff. The San Francisco 49ers don't have many big-name weapons, but they have brilliant play-caller in Kyle Shanahan and a young quarterback in Nick Mullens fresh off one of the best quarterback debuts ever.

The young gun and the home team will win out in a close, sloppy game.

Prediction: 49ers 23, Giants 20