Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 1, 2018

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) gives the thumbs-up signal during the first half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Oct. 28, 2018. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

The Cleveland Browns (2-5-1) will play their first game this season without head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley when they host the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs (7-1) on Sunday as large home underdogs at sportsbooks.

Both Jackson and Haley were relieved of their duties Monday, with the former replaced on an interim basis by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams.


NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as 8.5-point favorites; the total was 52.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 33.0-20.6 Chiefs. NFL picks on every game.

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.


Why the Chiefs Can Cover the Spread

The Chiefs will need to guard against a potential letdown spot here at Cleveland following a 30-23 home win over the Denver Broncos in a divisional game.

They failed to cover the spread for the first time this year as nine-point favorites and saw the under cash for the fourth time in five games.

Kansas City's offense has still been awesome to watch, though, led by second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who leads the league in passing yards (2,526) and touchdowns (26) through the first eight weeks.


Why the Browns Can Cover the Spread

The Browns cannot play much worse offensively than they did last week in a 33-18 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

They were held without a touchdown until five minutes and 24 seconds into the third quarter and did not score another until there were only six seconds remaining in the game.

While rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield looks like he has regressed since his impressive debut in relief back in Week 3—when he rallied Cleveland back to a 21-17 win over the New York Jets—Jackson and Haley are being blamed instead. Without their presence on the sideline, Mayfield should be able to thrive again.


Smart Betting Pick

It remains to be seen whether Williams is actually head coaching material, but bettors will see if he is indeed worthy of the title despite his checkered past.

The Chiefs have won three of the past four meetings with the Browns straight up, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, but they have failed to cover the last three in the series.

Cleveland's defense will slow down Kansas City's offense enough to make things interesting, and the home team will stay within a touchdown to cover the spread.


NFL Betting Trends

The Chiefs are 0-3 ATS in their past three games versus the Browns.

The total has gone UNDER in three of the Chiefs' past four games versus the Browns.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Browns' past 16 games at home.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.