Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Redskins Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 1, 2018

ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 23: Mohamed Sanu #12 celebrates a touchdown with Julio Jones #11 of the Atlanta Falcons during the second half against the New Orleans Saints at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on September 23, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
Daniel Shirey/Getty Images

The Atlanta Falcons (3-4) return from their bye week to visit the NFC East-leading Washington Redskins (5-2) on Sunday as small road underdogs at sportsbooks.

The Falcons have bounced back from a three-game losing streak by winning their last two games, while the Redskins have won three in a row to reach the top of their division.


NFL point spread: The Redskins opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.9-20.7 Redskins (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta is 7-2 straight up and 6-3 against the spread in its last nine games following a bye and needs to continue winning in order to keep pace with the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers in the NFC South.

The Falcons are just 2-5 ATS this season and have won their last two games by a combined eight points since their skid. They should be a little healthier now after the time off, and they had the league's leading passer in Matt Ryan prior to their bye.


Why the Redskins can cover the spread

Washington is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven home games—one of the reasons this team currently leads the NFC East.

The Redskins have continued to prove their doubters wrong with quarterback Alex Smith under center and have won four of their last five as underdogs three times during that stretch.

They have beaten the Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers as home underdogs in each of their last three games at FedExField, so being small favorites in this situation is a change.


Smart betting pick

Atlanta has won the past five meetings with Washington by an average of nearly eight points per game, and you could definitely argue this is a much bigger game for Ryan and his teammates. With a loss, the Falcons would fall two games below the .500 mark, and their playoff chances would dim even more.

The Redskins can afford to lose this game and still win the division, and they lost to the Indianapolis Colts 21-9 the last time they were favored at home back in Week 2.

Bettors can expect Atlanta to play with a lot of desperation in this spot and come through with an upset victory on the road.


NFL betting trends

The Falcons are 5-0 SU in their last five games versus the Redskins.

The total has gone under in nine of the Redskins' last 11 games.

The Redskins are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games after a win.


All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.