Breeders' Cup 2018: Odds and Predictions for All Entries in Classic Race
Accelerate is the favourite with oddsmakers ahead of the 2018 Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, on Saturday.
The fancied colt can expect a strong challenge from West Coast, trained by Bob Baffert, while Baffert also has McKinzie in the field.
Europe's best hopes come from Thunder Snow, a four-year-old needing to make up for drama at last year's Kentucky Derby. The UAE Derby and Dubai World Cup winner's form means he's capable of upsetting the odds.
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Odds (Per OddsShark)
- Accelerate: 3-1
- McKinzie: 6-1
- Catholic Boy: 13-2
- West Coast: 7-1
- Yoshida: 9-1
- Mind Your Biscuits: 10-1
- Mendelssohn: 11-1
- Roaring Lion: 12-1
- Thunder Snow: 12-1
- Gunnevera: 40-1
- Pavel: 33-1
- Discreet Lover: 20-1*
- Lone Sailor: 30-1*
- Axelrod: 30-1*
- Collected: 16-1
*odds per the Breeders' Cup website
Thunder Snow Set for Top-3 Finish
A last-placed finish at Churchill Downs in 2017 puts the pressure on Thunder Snow to prove itself on American soil.
Fortunately, the colt's form since Kentucky has been outstanding, according to Jason Frakes of the Louisville Courier Journal:
"Three weeks after last year's Kentucky Derby, Thunder Snow was back in Ireland and finished second in the Irish 2000 Guineas. He's won three races since then, most recently capturing the $10 million Dubai World Cup last March."
Frakes also noted how Thunder Snow finished second behind fellow Breeders' Cup entry Discreet Lover at the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup back in September.
It will help Thunder Snow's chances to be running from the first post position.
All of this adds up to a better performance at Churchill Downs than his showing in Kentucky. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor needs a win after going four months without one earlier this year.
Thunder Snow won't get Bin Suroor in the winners' circle at Churchill Downs, but he will race well enough to finish third.
Baffert Set for a 4th Classic Win
Accelerate is the betting favourite, but it's Baffert who will be left smiling at the expense of John Sadler once the race has concluded. Baffert-trained horses took the Classic in 2014, '15 and '16, and he can expect one of his two prime contenders to give him a fourth win this weekend.
West Coast was two-and-a-quarter lengths behind Accelerate in the Awesome Again Stakes, per Frakes. It's proof Baffert's highest-rated entry can put the pressure on the favourite.
McKinzie shouldn't be overlooked easily, though. Starting at post position six, the winner of the Pennsylvania Derby back in September will again be ridden by Mike Smith.
The 53-year-old's presence in the saddle is the best reason to believe McKinzie can finish first. Smith has ridden to a record 26 victories at the Breeders' Cup.
Expect either West Coast's speed or Smith's winning habit and experience on McKinzie to prove decisive for Baffert.
Change of Course Will Hamper Accelerate
The favourite may be hampered by racing on the track at Churchill Downs. It will be a new experience for a horse dominant on home soil.
Frakes noted how 20 of Accelerate's 21 career races have taken place in California. It's an underrated issue that has to concern trainer John Sadler, as should his horse having to race from post position 14.
The combination of running from the outside, as well as the unfamiliarity on what is usually a heavy track in Kentucky, spells trouble for Accelerate. It means the horse tipped to win will disappoint bettors by coming in fourth.
Mind Your Biscuits Set for Second
If form is anything to go by, Mind Your Biscuits has a strong case to defy odds of 10-1. Recent finishers indicate the colt trained by Chad Summers will leave many other horses in the field trailing.
Mind Your Biscuits has plenty of quickness in his five-year-old legs, according to Gentry Estes of the Courier Journal. He detailed how Summers' horse "has placed second or better in his past six races and has posted speed figures of 108 and a career-best 109 in two of the past three races."
Putting speed and power together in a formidable package means Mind Your Biscuits can cross the line before Accelerate and Thunder Snow and either West Coast or McKinzie. However, he won't manage a finish strong enough to take the Cup.
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