New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick
October 25, 2018
The New England Patriots (5-2) will try to run their winning streak to five games in the Week 8 Monday night matchup when they visit the Buffalo Bills (2-5) as double-digit road favorites at sportsbooks. The Patriots will be playing away from home for the second week in a row and in prime time overall for the third time in four weeks.
NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 13-point favorites; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.3-16.7 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)
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Why the Patriots can cover the spread
New England has been involved in shootouts in its last three games. They have outscored opponents despite giving up 24 points or more each time. In fact, the Patriots have averaged a little more than 39 points during their current four-game winning streak, scoring no less than 38 over that period, with future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady averaging 308 passing yards.
The Bills do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with Brady, and that will be the difference in terms of covering the spread.
Why the Bills can cover the spread
While Buffalo does not have a strong offense, the team's defense has given Brady fits at times in the past and can help cover in this spot at home. The Bills edged the Tennessee Titans 13-12 in their last home game before dropping two in a row on the road, and veteran quarterback Derek Anderson will give their offense a chance to score more points even though he failed to get them into the end zone last week in falling 37-5 to the Indianapolis Colts.
Buffalo has also gone 5-1 against the spread in its last six games after failing to cover its previous game, so that works in the team's favor as well.
Smart betting pick
It is hard to believe the Bills were a playoff team a year ago, but that just shows how quickly things can change. However, do not tell that to a New England team that has beaten Buffalo six straight times on the road by an average of just over 14 points and covered the spread in the past four at New Era Field.
In addition, the Patriots are 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 on the road overall, so they will win and cover again.
NFL betting trends
The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road vs the Bills.
The total has gone over in three of the Patriots' last four games on the road vs the Bills.
The Bills are 1-18 SU in their last 19 games as a double digit underdog.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.