New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Minnesota and New Orleans are not divisional rivals but the Vikings beat the Saints twice last year, including in miracle-like fashion in that crazy NFC divisional round playoff game. Who's the smart bet for Sunday night's rematch in Minneapolis?

NFL point spread: The Vikings opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 53 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.6-26.0 Vikings (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread its last five times out, after beating the Ravens in Baltimore last week 24-23. The Saints trailed the Ravens 10-7 at the half and 17-7 through three quarters, then used a 17-0 spurt to take a 24-17 lead. New Orleans later allowed Baltimore to score a touchdown with less than a minute to go but got a gust of wind from the football gods that caused Ravens kicker Justin Tucker to miss the extra point, giving the Saints the victory.

On the day New Orleans out-rushed Baltimore 134-77, held a 34-26 advantage in time of possession and converted on four-of-five fourth-down attempts. The Saints also won outright as two-point dogs on the road.

New Orleans, known for its air attack and often-porous defense, has now out-rushed each of its last four opponents by 79 yards per game. And teams that out-rush their opponents are 76-29 SU and 72-32 ATS this NFL season.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota is 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS its last three times out, after beating the Jets in New Jersey last week 37-17. The Vikings drove the opening possession of the game 68 yards to a touchdown, led 10-7 at the half, then drove their first possession of the second half 64 yards to another touchdown and a 17-7 lead. Minnesota pulled away from there for the win and the cover as 3.5-point favorites.

On the afternoon the Vikings out-gained New York 316-263, held a 32-28 edge in time of possession and won the turnover battle 4-0, creating a plus-13 point differential.

Minnesota has now out-gained five of its seven opponents this season.

Smart betting pick

The Vikings beat the Saints twice last year by scores of 29-19 and 29-24. Minnesota out-played New Orleans in that first meeting during the regular season, but the Saints choked away that playoff match. As for this game, New Orleans is doing the better job of running the ball as of late, plus it's got that Brees guy, who's pretty good. Smart money here takes the Saints.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in eight of the Saints' last 10 games vs the Vikings.

The Saints are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October.

The Saints are 5-0 SU in their last five games.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.