NFL Predictions Week 7: Top Odds, Picks, Projections for Every Game on Schedule

The Buffalo Bills may not be doing much winning in real life, but from a gambling perspective, the team has covered the spread in three of its past four games, per OddsShark.

This Sunday, the Bills are getting 6.5 points at the 1-5 Indianapolis Colts. Is it time to back the underdog Bills again, or should bettors lay money on the home side?

We'll take a deeper dive into that game and provide picks for every Week 7 matchup. All odds are via OddsShark.

Week 7 Odds and Picks

Denver Broncos (-2.5, 40.5 O/U) at Arizona Cardinals: ARI 17, DEN 16

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 45.5 O/U) in London: LAC 27, TEN 10

New England Patriots (-3.5, 49.5 O/U) at Chicago Bears: NE 24, CHI 23

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 49.5 O/U): CLE 24, TB 23

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 45.5 O/U): PHI 27, CAR 24

Minnesota Vikings (-3, 47 O/U) at New York Jets: MIN 20, NYJ 13

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (no line): MIA 24, DET 20

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 42.5 O/U): BUF 17, IND 16

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 42.5 O/U): HOU 17, JAX 13

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 49.5 O/U): NO 27, BAL 24

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-1.5, 41.5 O/U): DAL 24, WAS 20

Los Angeles Rams (-11, 53.5 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers: LAR 31, SF 13

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 58.5 O/U): KC 34, CIN 27

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 54 O/U): ATL 34, NYG 24

Bills (+6.5) at Colts

The Bills allowed 75 points in their first six halves of the 2018 season. In the four-and-a-half games since, their defense has given up just 55 points, or an average of 12.22 per game. Buffalo has also allowed just four offensive touchdowns during that span.

The Bills have managed this success despite the immense pressure it faces every week to keep the team in games, as the offense has scored more than 13 points just twice.

Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano help lead the defensive charge. Despite being just 20 years old, Edmunds is playing like a seasoned veteran with a team-leading 47 tackles and five passes defended. Milano had a sack, interception, fumble recovery and eight tackles in a monumental 27-6 upset over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.

Elsewhere, defensive end Jerry Hughes (team-leading 4.5 sacks and six quarterback hits), shutdown cornerback Tre'Davious White (87 career tackles and 22 passes defended in two years) and 35-year-old wonders Lorenzo Alexander (five passes defended) and Kyle Williams (3.5 sacks) contribute to what is arguably the league's top defense over the past month.

The Bills' playmaking defense presents a problem for the short-handed Colts, who may be without wideout T.Y. Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle again. The duo are week to week with injuries, and neither practiced last week. Their Week 7 statuses are unconfirmed.

If neither player can go, the strong edge goes to the Bills when the Colts have the ball. It's just a matter of whether the Bills offense can score enough to give the team a win.

A question is whether Bills rookie quarterback Josh Allen can go after suffering an elbow injury off a hit that forced him from his team's 20-13 loss to the Houston Texans. Head coach Sean McDermott provided an update in his Monday press conference:

Chris Mortensen of ESPN provided more insight (via Adam Schefter of ESPN): 

Dr. David Chao, who used to be the San Diego Chargers team doctor, provided his professional insight in an article for the San Diego Union-Tribune. He believes Allen may have a "UCL sprain with structural damage and does not think Allen will be back before November.

Allen hasn't yet been ruled out, but clearly the odds look stacked against him.

If backup Nathan Peterman starts for Allen, then the Bills' situation looks bleak. Peterman threw a pick-six after replacing Allen and has thrown nine interceptions to just three touchdowns in six career games.

Derek Anderson is the other team's option, but the 35-year-old has started just four games since 2011. It's hard to guess what will happen with him under center.

If he can somehow go, Allen is clearly the team's best option, even at less than 100 percent. He has struggled throwing the ball (54 percent completion rate, two touchdowns, five interceptions), but at least he can make plays running, amassing 155 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.

On the whole, the Bills offense has endured a brutal schedule since Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens. The opposing defenses Buffalo has faced have the following rankings in points allowed per game: first, 16th, 18th, 10th, third and 12th. 

Now they face a Colts team that has allowed the third-most points per game. Furthermore, Indianapolis just put forth a rough defensive effort against the New York Jets, as rookie quarterback Sam Darnold completed 80 percent of his passes and led the offense to 35 points.

Indianapolis has now allowed 30, 38 and 35 points in their past three games. Granted, the Colts defense has seen its share of injuries as well, but the team clearly needs work on that end.

If Allen goes, take the Bills to cover and win outright. If Anderson or Peterman call the shots, backing Buffalo is more difficult, although the under would seem to be a safer bet.