Week 6 NFL Picks: Final Vegas Odds and Predictions for Sunday's Slate

Betting on the first few weeks of the NFL can be a challenge. It's tough to know whether to trust early-season results or your preseason expectations. 

With five gameweeks in the books, we're starting to get a large-enough sample size to draw conclusions about teams. Surprising teams, such as the Cleveland Browns, should be taken seriously. And it's probably time to start bailing on disappointing teams such as the Denver Broncos. 

So as you get ready to make your Week 6 picks, it's time to put an emphasis on early-season results and, for the most part, throw your preseason expectations out the window.

With that mind, here are predictions against the spread for every Week 6 game, followed by a closer look at a few key matchups. Predicted winners are in bold.

Week 6 Matchups

Cardinals at Vikings (-10)

Bills at Texans (-10)

Buccaneers at Falcons (-3)

Panthers (-1) at Redskins

Colts at Jets (-2)

Steelers at Bengals (-1.5)

Chargers (-1) at Browns

Bears (-3.5) at Dolphins

Seahawks (-2.5) at Raiders

Rams (-7) at Broncos

Ravens (-2.5) at Titans

Jaguars (-3) at Cowboys

Chiefs at Patriots (-3.5)

49ers at Packers (-9.5)

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10)

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

It's easy to understand why the Buffalo Bills are underdogs in this matchup. The Bills have scored an NFL-worst 63 points through five games, and all three of its losses have been by double digits.

However, can we trust the Houston Texans to cover a 10-point spread?

In five games, Houston has only held a double-digit lead against the Indianapolis Colts—a game in which it blew an 18-point lead before winning in overtime.

Dating back to last season, the Texans have gone 15 straight games without winning by more than 10 points.

Getting double-digit points, the Bills are being treated like a team that can't function on either side of the ball, but that simply isn't the case. Buffalo boasts the league's sixth-ranked total defense, and ninth-ranked passing defense.

Unless Josh Allen's turnovers dig a hole Buffalo can't climb out of, the Bills defense should be able to keep this matchup interesting.

Prediction: Texans 21, Bills 13

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Dallas Cowboys

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Without Leonard Fournette, who remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been forced to rely on turnover-machine Blake Bortles, and the results have been predictably ugly. 

Entering Week 6, the Jaguars offense has committed a turnover on 20.7 percent of its drives, the worst rate in the NFL.

However, the Dallas Cowboys defense may not be capable of taking advantage of Jacksonville's miscues. Dallas has forced turnovers on just 7.4 percent of its opponents drives, tied for the third-worst rate in the league.

The inability to force turnvoers has been a recurring issue for Dallas. The Cowboys defense hasn't ranked in the top half of the NFL in turnover rate since 2014.

If Dallas can't force Bortles into a few costly mistakes, it's difficult to envision the league's 28th-ranked offense moving the ball against Jacksonville's defense, which ranks third in scoring defense and first in total defense.

Jacksonville should be able to overcome Bortles' sloppy play with its suffocating defense and pull out a relatively easy victory in Dallas.

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Cowboys 13

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at New England Patriots

Steven Senne/Associated Press

Over the past six seasons the New England Patriots are 11-2 at home in prime-time games. Clearly, Gillette Stadium can be an intimidating place to play, but the Kansas City Chiefs will not be fazed by the challenge. 

One of those losses was a 42-27 defeat at the hands of the Chiefs in September 2017, so the majority of Kansas City's roster has already tasted success in New England.

Even though the Patriots have the talent to match up with the Chiefs, until someone provides the blueprint for stopping Patrick Mahomes, it's tough to bet against Kansas City. 

Young quarterbacks who change the dynamic of a team's offense often find immediate success in the league—and the shift from Alex Smith to Mahomes couldn't be more extreme. Take the Cowboys' shift from Tony Romo to Dak Prescott a few years for example or the Texans' switch from their revolving door of quarterbacks to Deshaun Watson. 

Each of those quarterbacks found immediate success until defenses were able to adjust. 

Eventually, a team will figure out a game plan for slowing down Mahomes and the Chiefs. But until we see it happen, it's probably foolish to bet against them.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Patriots 27