Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson: Head-to-Toe Breakdown
It has been a rematch too long in the making, but it is finally here. Per ESPN.com's Ariel Helwani, Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson will meet at UFC 232 on Dec. 29 in Las Vegas for the UFC light heavyweight championship (current champion Daniel Cormier will give up the strap).
The first meeting came at UFC 165, and it became a legendary fight. For five full rounds, Jones and Gustafsson pelted each other with everything but the kitchen sink. Neither man wilted. Jones was able to show he can overcome adversity and escaped with a narrow decision win.
It has taken five years to get to this point, but the rematch is set.
What has changed since then? Will it be another instant classic? Will Gustafsson end Jones' aura of dominance? Or will Jones take back his throne?
Every MMA fan should be anticipating this fight, and now is the time to look at the tale of the tape. Let's examine who will walk out of the cage and into the new year as the face of the 205-pound division.
This is our UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson II head-to-toe breakdown.
Striking
1 of 5
The first fight was largely a striking affair, and that is how the bout was ultimately determined.
According to the FightMetric stats, Jones handled this portion of the fight. But it is a prime example of how stats are misleading. While Jones did score more, it was not as clear-cut as the numbers make it seem. Gustafsson gave Jones fits on the feet and scored with heavy blows.
The two were busted up at the end of the fight.
It was the first, and perhaps only, time Jones (22-1) looked beatable.
The former kingpin of the division should still have the advantage on the feet. The oblique kicks, spinning back elbows, high kicks and beyond make him a more diverse and dangerous striker. It was this creativity that clinched the first fight for him as well.
Gustafsson will be game and has the tools to take the fight, but when isolating the skill sets, Jones takes the edge.
Edge: Jones
Grappling
2 of 5
Gustafsson surprised everyone in the first meeting by equaling Jones in the grappling department. Not only did he showcase solid takedown defense, but he even took Jones to the mat.
It likely had more to do with the element of surprise than a clear match of skills. Jones is the better grappler.
Jones has always had his wrestling to fall back on. That is his background after all. And it is something we have seen him utilize time and again. He has even out-grappled Daniel Cormier, a former Olympic wrestler.
Jones may not be taken aback by Gustafsson's wrestling this time, and that could be one of the biggest factors in the fight.
Edge: Jones
Submissions
3 of 5
Neither fighter relies on their submission skills, but both have the ability to lock up chokes. Gustafsson hasn't secured a submission since 2011, and Jones hasn't had one since 2012.
If forced to give either the edge, it would have to go to Jones.
The two biggest factors are Jones' grappling advantage, which will likely put him in better position to secure a submission, and proof of his submission ability in title fights. Ask jiu-jitsu black belts Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort.
Jones has been able to finish with a choke or an americana under the brightest lights. Gustafsson hasn't.
It is still a closely contested area where Jones sneaks through with a very slight edge. No one should count out Gustafsson in any standard category of the fight. The first bout showed how closely contested it was, but Jones shows just enough to warrant the edge.
Edge: Jones
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X-Factors
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Gustafsson's X-Factor: Takedowns
Going back to his wrestling will be key for Gustafsson on December 29. He has to get Jones thinking about all aspects of the fight. If it becomes solely a kickboxing or grappling affair, Jones should run away with the fight.
If Gustafsson can threaten with the takedown as he did in their first meeting, Jones will be thinking more. And when fighters think, they can get caught.
This is not to say Gustafsson has to be successful throughout. He merely has to be a legitimate threat in that area.
Jones' X-Factor: Dealing with Gustafsson's Length
Neither before or since have we seen anyone who can measure up to Jones physically, and it was apparent that Gustafsson's 79-inch reach (only five less than his) gave him trouble. How Jones deals with this after having experienced it will go a long way to determining if it's another 50/50 fight or if Jones demolishes him.
Jones' striking and grappling are largely predicated off his physical features. He utilizes his range exceptionally well. It is what makes him special.
Gustafsson's presence takes that away from Jones, forcing him to rely on better technique and game-planning. He did it in the first, but now he knows exactly what to expect. The learning experience from the first fight will play the biggest role in determining the outcome of the second.
Prediction
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This will likely still be a good fight, but do not expect a repeat of their classic first encounter. Jon Jones is simply too good.
Gustafsson's biggest chance could come from Jones' ring rust. The last time Jones was suspended, he returned against Ovince Saint Preux. It was a fight he should have finished without much issue. But it was apparent the 15 months away from the Octagon created some issues. He couldn't get right back into the groove.
If that happens this time, Gustafsson could be in a prime spot to upset Jones, who last fought July 2017 against Cormier in what was deemed a no-contest.
Jones has remarkable fight IQ. Having gone 25 minutes with Gustafsson before, Jones will analyze that before the fight to make the necessary adjustments. It may take him a round or two, but he'll fully establish control of the fight before beginning his domination of another foe.
It will be Jones' intellect and experience on display for the rematch. Expect to be awestruck at his performance as he reclaims light heavyweight glory.
Prediction: Jon Jones defeats Alexander Gustafsson by TKO in the third round.
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