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Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 9, 2018

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady signals on the sideline during the first half of an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts, Thursday, Oct. 4, 2018, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
Charles Krupa/Associated Press

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) will look to keep their perfect record intact when they visit the New England Patriots (3-2) as small road underdogs at sportsbooks for the Week 6 Sunday night matchup. The Chiefs are also 5-0 against the spread following a 30-14 rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars as three-point home favorites last Sunday.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 58 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.4-25.4 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

   

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Patrick Mahomes is how Kansas City can beat the number again Sunday night, as the team's second-year quarterback continues to show why he is one of the best in the game. Despite throwing his first two interceptions of the year against the Jaguars, he still totaled more than 300 yards through the air for the fourth straight game and also rushed for a touchdown.

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New England's defense has been vulnerable through the air and surrendered 376 yards and four touchdowns to Blake Bortles in a 31-20 road loss at Jacksonville in Week 2. Bortles threw four picks last week versus the Chiefs.

   

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots have played much better since losing to the Jaguars and Detroit Lions in consecutive weeks, outscoring the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts by a combined total of 76-31. They are seemingly in a perfect spot here with their third home game in a row and hosting an unbeaten team in prime time.

New England head coach Bill Belichick has done an outstanding job game-planning for rookie quarterbacks in the past, which is essentially what Mahomes is with just six career starts under his belt. Belichick has also had extra time to prepare for Mahomes since the Patriots defeated the Colts 38-24 in the Week 5 Thursday night game.

   

Smart betting pick

Kansas City has lost six of its last seven games at New England, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, with the lone victory coming in last year's season opener.

The Patriots have won 10 straight home games since suffering a 33-30 loss to the Carolina Panthers last year, going 9-1 ATS. In addition, they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 prime-time games, including last week. Take New England to win and cover again.

   

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in the Chiefs' last three games vs. the Patriots.

The Patriots are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home.

The Patriots are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at night.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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