NFL Picks Week 6: Game-by-Game Advice for Current Vegas Spreads

Another NFL week has passed, and another wacky slate of games is in the books. There were no ties in Week 5, but we did have a couple of games go to overtime. We also had a couple of upsets, blowouts and exciting finishes, as per usual in the 2018 season.

This season, it really has felt like any team can win on any given day. This adds to the fun factor of football, obviously, but it also makes wagering a bit more difficult. Heading into Week 6, we have quite a few games expected to be close, and a handful of potential blowouts—but how should you play them?

We'll look at a game with one of the biggest spreads, a matchup with one of the tightest and one that should include an upset alert. We'll also include the early odds and over/unders—courtesy of OddsShark—and score predictions for each game of Week 6.

Just a reminder, the Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints will be on bye this week.

NFL Week 6 Picks

Thursday, October 11

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at New York Giants (O/U 44): Eagles 21, Giants 20

Sunday, October 14

Arizona Cardinals (+10.5) at Minnesota Vikings (O/U 43): Vikings 26, Cardinals 20

Buffalo Bills (+8.5) at Houston Texans (O/U Unavailable): Texans 22, Bills 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons (O/U 57.5); Falcons 31, Buccaneers 28

Carolina Panthers (+1.5) at Washington Redskins (O/U Unavailable): Panthers 20, Redskins 18

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) at New York Jets (O/U 45): Colts 27, Jets 24

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 53): Steelers 30, Bengals 27

Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Cleveland Browns (O/U 44): Chargers 20, Browns 18

Chicago Bears (-3) at Miami Dolphins (O/U 42.5): Bears 24, Dolphins 20

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Oakland Raiders (O/U 47.5): Seahawks 28, Raiders 20

Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Denver Broncos (O/U 52.5): Rams 28, Broncos 23

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Tennessee Titans (O/U 41): Ravens 20, Titans 18

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Dallas Cowboys (O/U 40.5): Jaguars 26, Cowboys 22

Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at New England Patriots (O/U 59): Patriots 33, Chiefs 30

Monday, October 15

San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) at Green Bay Packers (O/U 46.5): Packers 27, 49ers 20

The Wide Margin

The line is sure to shift between now and Monday night, but if you can get the San Francisco 49ers and close to 10 points against the Green Bay Packers, you should take advantage.

Yes, the Packers are the better team. They have the better quarterback, and they're playing at home. However, this is a lot of points to be giving up to a team with offensive genius Kyle Shanahan running the show.

Don't let the fact C.J. Beathard is starting in place of Jimmy Garoppolo scare you. Shanahan is still going to get his offense rolling. San Francisco racked up 447 yards and 33 first downs against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5.

On the Packers' end, there have been some offensive (and kicking) issues.

"I've got to play better from the start," quarterback Aaron Rodgers explained, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com.  "And I expect to, and I will and we've got to give our defense, you know, some more help."

Green Bay's defense has been better this season, but it isn't going to shut out the 49ers the way it did the Buffalo Bills. Even including that 22-point shutout, the Packers have only outscored opponents 115-114 this season, so it's not like blowout wins are commonplace.

This could still end up being a comfortable win for the Packers, but expect the 49ers to pull within a touchdown late to cover.

Jason Miller/Getty Images

The Pick'em

OK, so the game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Cleveland Browns isn't actually a pick'em in the strict sense, but come on, we're talking about a one-point road favorite here. That's about as close as you're going to get.

Going against the line makes for a risky pick on either side, primarily because we don't quite know who these Browns are. They're sitting at 2-2-1, but they could be 5-0 or 0-5. Of the Browns games that have been decided this year, each has been by a field goal or less.

Considering a blocked field goal cost the Browns a win in Week 1, three missed kicks cost them a win in Week 2, and some questionable (at best) officiating potentially cost them a win in Week 4, I'm inclined to believe Cleveland is closer to being a 5-0 team than a winless one.

When you add in the fact the Chargers are traveling across the country to play an early afternoon game, it wouldn't be surprising if the Browns win this one. Of course, it wouldn't be a surprise if they lost or tied either.

Therefore, we're going to suggest avoiding the line here and going with the under.

The game against the Oakland Raiders was an anomaly for the Browns defense. In the four other matchups this season, Cleveland has surrendered an average of just 17 points per game. It surrendered just 21 points apiece to the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers offenses, and that's around what we should expect Sunday.

Unless the Chargers defense collapses, L.A. should be able to keep Cleveland in the 20-point range, and that makes the underside of 44 appealing.

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

The Upset

It's always a fun and physical time when the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals get together. In Week 6 the Bengals will be at home, and they're currently favored by just under a field goal.

Now is a good time to jump on the Steelers. Yes, they have issues, particularly on defense, but when their offense is clicking—like it was against the Atlanta Falcons—Pittsburgh is hard to stop.

Pittsburgh dropped 381 yards of offense and 41 points on a Falcons team that Cincinnati narrowly bested via a last-minute comeback. These two offenses are evenly matched, and that's going to make for a close, exciting game.

Here's the kicker, though. The Steelers have a history of winning tough games against the Bengals, especially in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has won its last five games at Paul Brown Stadium, and has won eight of its last nine games played there.

Expect the Steelers to make it nine of 10 in Week 6.