Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings: Projections to Love and Matchups to Exploit

There is an element to fantasy football that has a lot to do with guesswork in the early part of the season. 

That is never more true than in Weeks 1 and 2, when head coaches are putting their most highly skilled offensive talent on the field for the first time. Some of these players may have seen some action during the preseason, but many more have been saved because head coaches want to guard against injuries.

Whether that's good or bad is debatable, but it is reality. Top players are rarely in top form at the start of the season.

Weeks 3 and 4 are still about the growth and the learning process, but not to the same extent. However, once four games have been played, fantasy football owners know what their players are capable of doing and understand the role their players will have in the game plan.

There will be a few surprises along the way, but top players have a better chance of performing up to expectations, barring injuries or the occasional off game.

With that as the backdrop, here's our look at the top matchups to exploit and the players to utilize in Week 5.

Quarterbacks

1. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. ATL
2. Drew Brees, NO vs. Wash
3. Matt Ryan, ATL at PIT
4. Aaron Rodgers GB at DET
5. Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. DAL
6. Philip Rivers, LAC vs. OAK
7. Jared Goff LAR at SEA
8. Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. JAC
9. Kirk Cousins MIN at PHI
10. Carson Wentz, PHI vs. MIN

Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers are off to a halting 1-2-1 start, and they are coming off a double-digit loss to the archrival Baltimore Ravens.

The Steelers are not a good team. They have been trying to get along without Le'Veon Bell, but it has not been working. While backup James Conner plays hard and has been productive, he is not Bell, whose absence has hurt the team's balance.

Pittsburgh has the 29th-ranked running game in the league, but despite the problems in this area, the Steelers rank sixth overall on offense and third in the passing game.

Roethlisberger has thrown for an average of 338.8 yards per game though his first four outings in 2018, and he is completing 64.4 percent of his passes. However, instead of throwing three TD passes per game, he has averaged just two per game. That's a result of Bell's absence.

The Steelers have to get back to the .500 mark, and they play an Atlanta Falcons team that has been brutal on defense. The Falcons are 1-3, and they rank 28th in yards allowed per game and 25th against the pass.

While quarterback Matt Ryan has been lighting up the scoreboard, the Atlanta defense has been painful to watch. They gave up an average of 40 points the past two gameweeks in losing back-to-back home games to the New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals.

Now they go on the road to Pittsburgh, and they will not be able to stop Roethlisberger.

We also like Drew Brees, Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, but not as much as Big Ben.

Running Backs

1. Todd Gurley, LAR at SEA
2. Melvin Gordon, LAC vs. OAK
3. Alvin Kamara, NO vs. WAS
4. Saquon Barkley, NYG at CAR
5. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at HOU
6. Mark Ingram, NO vs. WAS
7. Kareem Hunt, KC vs. JAC
8. Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. NYG
9. David Johnson, ARI at SF
10. Marshawn Lynch, OAK at LAC

Todd Gurley is the best running back in the league, and he is out to prove that on an every-week basis.

That may not be the case if Bell were playing for the Steelers instead of sitting at home, and it may not be the case in the future if the New York Giants figure out a way to exploit Saquon Barkley's immense talent. 

Gurley's Los Angeles Rams are the best team in the NFC and may be the best in the league, and Los Angeles travels to face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 5. The best teams do not lose when they go on the road and play divisional games. They play their best football and they do their best to avoid errors.

Quarterback Jared Goff will throw the ball, but teams that avoid errors consistently on the road will not take risks.

Gurley has already rushed for 338 yards (4.3 yards per carry) and four touchdowns this year, and he is also a major factor as a receiver. He has caught all 15 passes sent his way for 194 yards and two touchdowns.

The running back is the engine who drives the Los Angeles offense, and if it weren't for him, that unit would not be as productive.

The Seahawks have fought back to square their record at 2-2, and while they are seventh overall on defense, they are 27th against the run. Look for a heavy dose of Gurley from start to finish.

Big games should be at hand for Melvin Gordon, Alvin Kamara and Barkley, but Gurley leads the way.

Wide Receivers

1. Antonio Brown PIT vs. ATL
2. Julio Jones ATL at PIT
3. Michael Thomas NO vs. WAS
4. DeAndre Hopkins HOU vs. DAL
5. Cooper Kupp, LAR at SEA
6. Keenan Allen LAC vs. OAK
7. Tyreek Hill, KC vs JAC
8. Odell Beckham Jr. NYG at CAR
9. Adam Thielen MIN at PHI
10. Davante Adams GB at DET

We love Antonio Brown, as we do almost every week. And the reasons for that appear in the earlier analysis of Roethlisberger. The same holds with Brown, who has not gotten off to his best start, as he has caught 29 passes for 272 yards and two touchdowns in 2018.

However, he has been targeted 42 times, and he is in a position where he is about to put some explosive games together. That means double-digit receptions for 150 yards or more and multiple touchdowns.

We also see Julio Jones having a huge game for the Falcons, and the battle of what has been the No. 1 and 2 receivers in the league could make for can't-miss entertainment.

As good as Jones has been throughout his career, we are not sure he will remain at the top level. The sight of Brown will bring out the best in him, but Jones has not gotten into the end zone this season.

He has caught 29 passes for 502 yards, but Calvin Ridley has taken over the role of the Falcons' primary TD receiver, with six scores already. We like Jones to get into the end zone in Week 5, but Ridley will take over that role in proceeding games.

Michael Thomas may bypass Jones as the NFL's No. 2 receiver, and DeAndre Hopkins should dominate against the Dallas Cowboys.

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce, KC vs. JAC
2. Zach Ertz, PHI vs. MIN
3. Jared Cook, OAK at LAC
4. Jordan Reed, WAS at NO
5. Jimmy Graham, GB at DET
6. George Kittle, SF vs. ARI
7. Vance McDonald, PIT vs. ATL
8. Kyle Rudolph, MIN at PHI
9. Antonio Gates, LAC vs. OAK
10. Benjamin Watson, NO vs. WAS

The New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski played Thursday night against the Indianapolis Colts, and that's why you don't see his name on this list. But even if that had been a Sunday or Monday game, we would not have had Gronkowski in the top spot.

He may not be the standout tight end in the league any longer, and he seems to have had a harder time getting open and catching the ball. Gronkowski has caught 23 passes for 308 yards and one touchdown, but he has not gotten into the end zone since Week 1.

That moves the Kansas City Chiefs' Travis Kelce into the No. 1 spot, and he is an excellent receiver who knows how to get open and he can run over people after he catches the ball. Kelce has caught 23 passes for 307 yards from Patrick Mahomes, and he fulfills the roles of big-play receiver and safety valve for the young quarterback.

We see this as a top matchup between Kansas City's explosive offense and the Jacksonville Jaguars' nasty defense. While we normally favor the defense in these kind of matchups, the homestanding Chiefs are simply the better-coached team—Andy Reid over Doug Marrone by a country mile—and they will run away in this game.

Look for Zach Ertz, Jared Cook and Jordan Reed to put big numbers on the board as well, but Kelce rules the day for tight ends.