UFC 229 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Khabib vs. McGregor

The hour is drawing near for UFC superstar Conor McGregor to make that walk against the biggest threat to his lightweight supremacy, Khabib Nurmagomedov. The two 155-pounders will headline UFC 229 in T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night.

The collision of contrasting styles is expected to do extremely well in pay-per-view sales in McGregor's first MMA fight since November 2016.

This isn't necessarily a coronation of the once and future king, though. Nurmagomedov comes into the fight as a slight favorite and the champion, and he presents challenges in the cage that fans have yet to see the Irishman overcome.

Nurmagomedov has made his name as an undefeated wrestling whiz with an undefeated record and the lightweight title, but there's a case to be made for both fighters in this virtual pick 'em.

PPV Main Card (10 p.m. ET)

• 155 lbs.: UFC Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov (-160) vs. Conor McGregor (+130)
• 155 lbs.: Tony Ferguson (-350) vs. Anthony Pettis (+260)
• 205 lbs.: Ovince Saint Preux (+175) vs. Dominick Reyes (-225)
• 265 lbs.: Derrick Lewis (+140) vs. Alexander Volkov (-175)
• 115 lbs.: Michelle Waterson (+100) vs. Felice Herrig (-130)

Fox Sports 1 Prelims (8 p.m. ET)

• 125 lbs.: Jussier Formiga (+120) vs. Sergio Pettis (-150)
• 170 lbs.: Vicente Luque (-800) vs. Jalin Turner (+500)
• 135 lbs.: Aspen Ladd (-150) vs. Tonya Evinger (+120)
• 155 lbs.: Scott Holtzman (+200) vs. Alan Patrick (-260)

Fight Pass Prelims (6:30 p.m. ET)

• 135 lbs.: Yana Kunitskaya (-210) vs. Lina Lansberg (+170)
• 155 lbs.: Gray Maynard (+180) vs. Nik Lentz (-230)
• 170 lbs.: Ryan LaFlare (-140) vs. Tony Martin (+110)

The Case for McGregor

McGregor's actions outside the cage have aided his rise to superstardom in the UFC, but it couldn't have happened without his elite skills.

His sniper-like accuracy and power have helped him put together a highlight tape of knockouts. Whether it's at featherweight, lightweight or welterweight, his technical striking ability has been put on display against some electric strikers, and he's come out on top nearly every time.

Then there's the confidence—it's an intangible, but it's one that can't be ignored. There's seemingly no one in the game with as much self-belief, and there's no one with as much self-promotion. It's the reason that UFC lightweight Justin Gaethje believes The Notorious is a live dog against the champion.

"It's hard to beat confidence, and [McGregor is] the most confident guy on planet Earth," he told Helen Yee of NBC Sports in July. "I don't know how he would stop Khabib from taking him down and eventually getting him to where he wants the fight. I probably see Khabib winning, but his left hand is phenomenal, and you cannot take anything away from that thing."

McGregor's confidence could be a factor. Nurmagomedov is capable of dominating an entire round if he's able to get top position, so The Notorious could be working on a come-from-behind victory.

It's the scenario that fellow UFC 229 participant Dominick Reyes sees playing out.

"I think Khabib's going to take him down, yes, and I think he is going to batter him a bit, but Conor's going to make him pay every time he comes in, and eventually I think that's going to add up and he's going to finish him," the light heavyweight told Shaun Al-Shatti and Marc Raimondi of MMA Fighting on Friday.

The Chad Mendes fight is worth looking at ahead of this matchup. Mendes got McGregor to the ground three times in their UFC 189 encounter and did some damage before the Irishman rallied for a second-round TKO.

Surviving Nurmagomedov's top game will be much more difficult than it was against Mendes, but it's proof that McGregor has done it before.

The Case for Nurmagomedov

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images

Nurmagomedov grew up wrestling bears.

Of course, that's not the only reason to back him, but it sums up the enigmatic champion. He has an extensive grappling background that combines wrestling and Sambo into a hellish amount of pressure for opponents.

The Eagle attempts to mow fighters over until their will is broken. Thus far, it has worked: He's 26-0 with a championship belt around his waist and hasn't even lost a round.

It's also a style that is hard to prepare for and adjust to in the Octagon, as former opponent Al Iaquinta could attest to.

"The worst-case scenario, I think [Nurmagomedov] takes a few shots from Conor and just keeps coming forward," Iaquinta told Raimondi in September. "I mean, Conor obviously has the power to put him out, but I don't know. Does he? I think a lot of people think he does, because he's knocked a lot of people out, but Khabib is tough. He sees things. He's got a little awkward style, which is different. It's tough to adjust to because it's so different standup-wise."

The other component, which Iaquinta pointed out later, is the question of McGregor's gas tank.

In his loss to Nate Diaz, a fast pace in the first round led to exhaustion in the second, and his opponent kept coming with volume. Although the pressure Nurmagomedov will pose is different to Diaz's, it's no less grueling.

Surviving what the champion has to offer is going to take resolve. Even for a guy with as much confidence as McGregor, Nurmagomedov has a way of breaking your will. After a long time away from the Octagon, it's fair to wonder if that could have an effect.

"McGregor has had too many distractions over the last two years—he's spent too long away from the Octagon—and we've already seen that he's vulnerable to a takedown. Unless he lands that Jose Aldo punch eight seconds into this fight, he's going to be taken down and mauled on the ground repeatedly, just like Khabib has done to everyone else," Steve Juon of MMA Mania wrote in predicting a Nurmagomedov decision win.

Prediction

Weighing all the evidence, this becomes a hard fight to pick. There's a reason this should be a huge attraction for casual and hardcore fans alike.

McGregor's left hand is difficult for anyone to walk through, and he's landed it on just about everyone he's fought thus far. That includes one of the greatest defensive boxers of all time in Floyd Mayweather Jr.

However, we have seen fighters walk through it and come away victorious before. What we haven't seen is someone survive the pressure Nurmagomedov brings and go on to beat him.

The intrigue lies in whether McGregor's confidence, power and technical prowess make a difference.

For now, it's hard to pick something you've never seen before, so look for Nurmagomedov to take over in the later rounds once again.

Nurmagomedov via fourth-round TKO