Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Two of the more pleasant surprises in the NFL so far this season are the Bengals and the Dolphins, who aren't only both 3-1 straight up they're making money at 3-1 against the spread. Who's the better bet for Sunday afternoon's Miami-Cincinnati showdown at Paul Brown Stadium?

NFL point spread: The Bengals opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 50 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.7-17.2 Bengals (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Following a 3-0 start to this season the Dolphins are trying to bounce back this week from their first defeat, a 38-7 decision at rival New England last week. Miami kept things close for about the first 20 minutes of the game last week but flailed from there in a performance better left on the cutting room floor.

In happier times the Dolphins opened this season with a 27-20 victory over Tennessee, winning that game outright as one-point home dogs. Miami then beat the Jets in New Jersey 20-12, winning that one outright as a three-point dog. And the Dolphins followed that up with a 28-20 victory over Oakland, covering as three-point favorites.

So through its first three games Miami was averaging 25 points per game, a touchdown more than it averaged last season.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals just bounced back from a loss at Carolina two weeks ago to beat the Falcons in Atlanta last week 37-36. Cincinnati spotted the Falcons the first seven points of the game, then drove its first four possessions 67, 51, 75 and 75 yards to touchdowns and a 28-21 lead. The Bengals later fell down 36-31 with four minutes to go but drove 75 yards again to the game-winning score, an Andy Dalton touchdown pass to a diving AJ Green with just seven seconds left on the clock.

On the day Cincinnati accumulated 407 yards of offense, as Dalton hit on 29 of 41 throws for 337 yards and three touchdowns, with one pick.

Two weeks ago the Bengals lost at Carolina 31-21 but they actually out-gained the Panthers that day 396-377. Unfortunately, four Dalton interceptions basically cost Cincinnati 17 points. The Bengals opened this season with that 34-23 come-from-behind victory over Indianapolis, then beat Baltimore by that same score in a game that wasn't really that close.

Smart betting pick

Cincinnati is coming off a big win on the road last week, while Miami is coming off an embarrassing defeat. However, reversals of fortune happen every week in the NFL, and this game looks like a candidate. Smart money likes the Dolphins and the points.

NFL betting trends

The Dolphins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs the Bengals.

The total has gone under in the Dolphins' last four games vs the Bengals.

The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in October.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.