NFL Picks Week 5: Over-Under Vegas Lines, Expert Predictions and Odds

Two of the NFL's best quarterbacks should advance in the record books during Week 5. 

Drew Brees is within 201 yards of Peyton Manning's all-time passing yards mark, while Tom Brady and Brees could both throw their 500th career touchdown passes Thursday and Monday, respectively. 

While the records are attainable, both quarterbacks aren't guaranteed to lead their teams in high-scoring games in which the over will hit. 

Including the games involving New England and New Orleans, six over/under lines are set at 50 or higher, while only one dips below 40. 

NFL Week 5 Schedule and Odds (via OddsShark)

Thursday, October 4

Indianapolis at New England (-10) (Over/Under: 50.5) 

Sunday, October 7

Atlanta at Pittsburgh (-3) (Over/Under: 57.5) 

Baltimore (-3) at Cleveland (Over/Under: 47) 

Denver at New York Jets (-1) (Over/Under: 42.5) 

Green Bay (-1) at Detroit (Over/Under: 51) 

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-3) (Over/Under: 49) 

Miami at Cincinnati (-6) (Over/Under: 49.5) 

New York Giants at Carolina (-7) (Over/Under: 44.5) 

Tennessee (-3.5) at Buffalo (Over/Under: 39) 

Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers (-5) (Over/Under: 53.5) 

Arizona at San Francisco (-4.5) (Over/Under: 41) 

Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Seattle (Over/Under: 50.5) 

Minnesota at Philadelphia (-3) (Over/Under: 45.5) 

Dallas at Houston (-3) (Over/Under: 45) 

Monday, October 8

Washington at New Orleans (-6.5) (Over/Under: 52.5) 

Predictions in bold against the spread.

Expert Predictions

Picks from NFL experts from a variety of outlets can be found on NFLPickWatch.com.

The New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints are considered overwhelming favorites in the eyes of most experts, as they've received almost 100 percent of the selections in their games. 

The clashes between Jacksonville and Kansas City and San Francisco and Arizona have caused the most division among experts. 

Over/Under Predictions

Take The Thursday Night Under

The rivalry between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots has been one-sided in favor of the Patriots recently. 

The Patriots have won each of the seven meetings between the two teams by an average margin of victory of 19 points, per ESPN's Adam Schefter: 

After putting up 38 points on the Miami Dolphins in Week 4, the Patriots will receive an offensive boost with wide receiver Julian Edelman returning from suspension. 

Given all the factors at play, the Patriots should steamroll the Colts, but there's no guarantee the over/under of 51.5 points will be in play. 

In New England's first four games, the total number of points scored has eclipsed 50 once, and that was in its Week 2 loss to Jacksonville. 

The New England style of blowing out teams usually involves a smothering defensive performance that is backed up by 30-40 points from the offense. 

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

If the game is over by halftime, like it was a week ago, the Patriots have little incentive to run up the score in the second half. 

There is some hope for the over to hit if the Colts are competitive, as they've been a part of two games that reached over 50 combined points, including the 37-34 overtime loss to Houston in Week 4. 

While it's not out of the question for the Colts to bounce back from a tight loss against one of the top teams in the league, it's going to be difficult. 

Frank Reich's team will be missing wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, tight end Jack Doyle and running back Marlon Mack, per the team's official injury report. 

With the Colts too banged up on offense to contend with the Patriots, the home side will run away with the game in the first half and cover the spread with ease, but the under is more likely unless the Colts score a late touchdown. 

Bank On Drew Brees And The Monday Night Over

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees is expected to surpass Peyton Manning as the NFL's all-time leader in passing yards Monday night. 

Brees also has the opportunity to eclipse 500 passing touchdowns in his career if he throws for four scores against the Washington Redskins. 

With the chance to wrap up the milestone talk before the bye week, Brees will produce his best passing performance of the season to date in Week 5. 

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

While the over/under of 52.5 points is still high for a regular-season game, it isn't large enough given the Saints' propensity to be involved in high-scoring games. 

Two of the four contests involving the Saints this season have featured over 80 total points, and the Week 4 win over the New York Giants contained 51 total points. 

The last game the 2-1 Redskins played before their Week 4 bye was a 31-17 victory over the Green Bay Packers. 

Even if the Saints figure out most of their defensive issues on film, they won't be able to fix all of them in one week, which opens the door for the Redskins to put up around 20 points. 

Brees might record the 201 passing yards necessary to eclipse Manning in the first half, but he won't slow down after that, as he'll lead the Saints to a 40-point output for the third time in 2018. 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com