Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) will put their perfect record on the line in the Week 4 Monday night matchup when they visit the Denver Broncos (2-1) as solid road favorites.

The Chiefs have looked like the AFC's top team this year, scoring a league-best 118 points while earning two of their three wins on the road.

NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 55 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.0-22.2 Broncos. NFL picks on every game.

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Chiefs Can Cover the Spread

Kansas City has won on the road to the Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers already this season, two teams that are both considered to be better than Denver. This is also a divisional game, so there is little chance that the Chiefs will be overlooking the Broncos in this spot, even with matchups against the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots on deck in the next two gameweeks.

The Chiefs have won 17 of their past 18 straight up versus AFC West opponents, covering the spread in 11 of 12, according to the OddsShark NFL Database.

Why the Broncos Can Cover the Spread

The Denver defense is the best Kansas City will have faced through the first four weeks of the season, which alone gives the home team a chance here. The Broncos have a pass rush that can put some serious pressure on second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has been outstanding but lacks experience, especially on the road.

The Chargers and Steelers might be good teams, but they have just two wins between them this year. Denver can win (and cover) by forcing turnovers.

Smart Betting Pick

Most betting trends in this AFC West matchup seemingly favor the Chiefs, which means the Broncos are worth a look as home underdogs. The public has already shown some early support for Kansas City, and the favorite will likely need to win by a touchdown to cover the closing number.

Denver has what it takes to keep this one close and will also benefit from a strong home-field advantage that helped the team edge the Seattle Seahawks and Oakland Raiders at Mile High. Take the Broncos to beat the spread.

NFL Betting Trends

The total has gone over in the Chiefs' past four games against the Broncos.

The total has gone over in six of the Broncos' past eight games at night.

The total has gone over in five of the Chiefs' past six games at night.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.