Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The AFC East-leading Miami Dolphins (3-0) will attempt to keep their perfect record intact Sunday when they visit the struggling New England Patriots (1-2) as solid road underdogs at sportsbooks.

The Patriots are coming off a brutal 26-10 loss to the Detroit Lions as seven-point road favorites on Sunday night, and they have not lost three consecutive games since 2002 when they suffered through a four-game skid.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 27.6-17.0 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins own a two-game lead in the division, with the other three teams currently sitting at 1-2. A victory at Gillette Stadium would obviously be huge considering they would take a three-game lead on New England.

However, even keeping this game close could go a long way to helping Miami win the division title. The Patriots have rarely been tested in spots like this, and the Dolphins can prove they are for real simply by staying competitive. Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill is 10-1 straight up in his previous 11 starts, so he has definitely been a difference maker when healthy.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The last two times New England dropped two straight games, the team bounced back with a victory and covered the spread, with both coming during the 2015 season. The Patriots did not lose two in a row in 2016 or 2017, so the chances of them falling again are very slim.

After all, New England quarterback Tom Brady has lost three straight only once in his career, and that happened in just his second year as a starter. Since then, the Patriots have made a habit of rebounding with Brady under center and head coach Bill Belichick on the sidelines. They are 38-14 against the spread in 52 games off a loss since 2003, which translates to covering the spread at an amazing 73.1 percent clip.

Smart betting pick

Much like last week, New England has most of the betting trends in its favor. The big difference this week is that the Patriots are playing at home, where they have won 19 of their last 21 games versus divisional opponents. They have also gone an outstanding 10-2-1 ATS in their previous 13 at home following back-to-back road games. Bet New England to get another easy win and cover.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in three of the Dolphins' last four games vs the Patriots.

The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six games on the road vs the Patriots.

The Patriots are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games at home after consecutive road games.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.