Predicting Winners of NFL's Biggest QB Competitions for 2026 Season

Five NFL teams lack clarity at the game's most important position. Each quarterback situation leans a specific direction where the path forward may be considered obvious.

Among those organizations looking to answer the biggest question a professional football team can address, each setup is different.

The Atlanta Falcons are transitioning under a new regime. The Arizona Cardinals have basically hit the pause button until next offseason. The Cleveland Browns remain desperate to find a quality starter after 26 years of futility.

The Las Vegas Raiders just drafted a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick, though it may be some time before Fernando Mendoza sees the field. Finally, the Minnesota Vikings are stuck between a reclamation project and potential failed first-round draft pick.

Only one of these competitions looks promising beyond this season, while the other four simply hope a viable candidate emerges to keep them competitive this fall.

Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Carson Beck (left) and Jacoby Brissett

Winner: Jacoby Brissett gives way to Carson Beck

The Arizona Cardinals aren't entering a true quarterback competition, because Brissett is the intended starter.

However, the veteran signal-caller's ongoing holdout, combined with the franchise's need to evaluate the position before next offseason, indicates he should not hold the job for the entire campaign.

"The 33-year-old Brissett wants more guaranteed money for this season, a source has told ESPN, and Brissett stayed away from the team all offseason, until this week, waiting for a decision to be made one way or the other," Josh Weinfuss reported. "Brissett will attend this week's mandatory minicamp, sources told ESPN, meaning he'll be at the facility, in meetings and in the weight room. The question is whether he'll practice."

While the Cardinals fully intend for Brissett to open the season as QB1, the team has little to no incentive to rework his contract for this season. He's a veteran bridge to get to next offseason, where Arizona's front office can reinvest a first-round pick in the quarterback position.

Brissett is a quality backup and bridge starter, as he's been at multiple different stops. At the same time, there's little to no upside with him at the helm of the Cardinals' offense. There might be with rookie Carson Beck.

Arizona drafted Beck with the first pick of this year's third round. He led Georgia to the College Football Playoff and later guided Miami to the national championship game. When he's working in rhythm from a clean pocket, he throws a beautiful ball.

At one point in his career, the Georgia-turned-Miami triggerman was thought to be an eventual first-round pick. While that didn't happen, the Cardinals should get him on the field this fall to evaluate whether he can lead their offense. A four-game sample may be perfect after Arizona's Week 14 bye.

Either Beck shows promise or helps the Cardinals make a push toward a top-five draft pick.

Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

Michael Penix Jr. (left) and Tua Tagovailoa

Winner: Tua Tagovailoa

The Atlanta Falcons have not given up on Michael Penix Jr. after only two seasons. However, the ties that bind are no longer in place after the organization fired the general manager and head coach who made him the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft.

Instead, Tua Tagovailoa is the more logical fit within Kevin Stefanski's offensive scheme, while having an early leg up in the competition as Penix continues his recovery from a torn ACL.

"It's tough to have a competition when both guys aren't competing at the same level right now," offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt told reporters. "So, it's hard and it'll come. It'll happen at some point. Mike's done a great job of getting himself to where he is right now. Really impressive to take 7-on-7 reps and go out and compete. That's been great. But really, there's no competition until we can actually evaluate him equally."

Obviously, Tagovailoa has his own injury history, specifically concussions, but he's healthy right now and taking the majority of team reps early in the process.

The real difference between these two quarterbacks lies in their passing acumen. Tagovailoa is known for his accuracy and ball placement, while Penix is a flamethrower, who struggles to layer his passes.

"[Accuracy] is the most important trait at the position, as we've always talked about," Stefanski told reporters. "Some guys get better at it with tweaks to how they throw the ball, tweaks to their lower body, those types of things. But there is an innate ability... to be able to let the ball go, and it's going where they want it to go.

"I think Tua, just in his career, as you've seen, has that innate, God-given ability."

A more consistent passer, who has the experience to operate the offense, should hold an edge, even if less is currently invested in Tagovailoa compared to Penix.

Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Shedeur Sanders

Winner: Shedeur Sanders

Sanders should be considered the Cleveland Browns' only choice for QB1 this fall.

The idea of Deshaun Watson somehow coming back from an Achilles tendon that's been ruptured twice, while having failed to provide NFL-caliber play since 2020, is nothing but wishful thinking by ownership. They are simply hoping to salvage anything from a player they signed to the worst contract in league history.

Sanders may not be the long-term answer behind center, but the sophomore signal-caller at least provides some hope if he can mature as a leader and further develop his skill set.

"From the point I got to the Browns, then that season, all the way to now, you can see the growth big time," veteran cornerback Tyson Campbell told reporters. "The way he carries himself, the way he practices, you can tell he's being even more than the pro that he was last year, and he's getting better, and he's getting more comfortable in the offense, and he's gonna make the plays."

Campbell's comments echoed what head coach Todd Monken stated a few weeks earlier, "I think Shedeur's come miles, in terms of his progressions, getting the ball out, his understanding of concepts. I think he's really, really come a long way."

Despite projections of Watson being ahead early in the process, the Browns told everyone exactly what they expect from this season when the organization traded Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams. If the front office planned to legitimately compete this fall because Watson was ready, looked close to Pro Bowl form from six years ago and had the franchise's full support, Garrett would still be on Cleveland's roster.

Instead, the Browns continued to add ammunition based on the strong possibility they will need picks to assure the acquisition of a top quarterback prospect from the 2027 draft class.

The only logical way that doesn't happen is by Sanders showing tremendous improvement in Year 2 and earning the spot. Thus, he's the logical option to start this fall.

Las Vegas Raiders

AP Photo/John Locher

Kirk Cousins

Winner: Kirk Cousins*

An asterisk is added to this specific choice, because everyone understands Fernando Mendoza is the future of the Las Vegas Raiders after being the No. 1 overall pick in this year's NFL draft.

Initially, Cousins should start so the Raiders do not rush Mendoza into the lineup before he is ready.

Cousins is a highly intelligent signal-caller capable of leading the offense and placing the unit in the right play depending on the situation.

Meanwhile, Mendoza can get comfortable learning from an established veteran, understanding how he prepares and building some confidence in what he needs to do once he's on the field.

"I've always felt I prepare my best during the season when we can all kind of be together in that room in the evening, going over things together rather than working in our own," Cousins said, per ESPN's Ryan McFadden. "I think when we can kind of all be given feedback on each other, that's when I think the best ideas come out."

Too often, top draft picks are rushed into the lineup because of the organization's initial investment. Some are ready and flourish. Most aren't. In Mendoza's case, his intelligence and competitive toughness are two of his best traits.

"Anything that you put in front of him, he's going to attack it," head coach Klint Kubiak said of Mendoza. "Anything new, he spends extra time on. You can tell he fixes things from one day to the next."

The Raiders can still slow-play this setup. There's no need to throw Mendoza into the fire, particularly as the team acclimates itself to Kubiak's new offensive scheme and question marks remain at wide receiver.

There is no obvious point in the schedule that stands out as the right time for Mendoza's first start. The coaching staff will just have to gauge his progress throughout practices to see when the proper time emerges. Until then, Cousins is more than capable of leading the way.

Minnesota Vikings

AP Photo/Abbie Parr

Kyler Murray

Winner: Kyler Murray

The Minnesota Vikings' choice isn't much of one since JJ McCarthy hasn't shown enough growth to warrant serious consideration.

To be fair, McCarthy was viewed as a prospect further behind on the developmental scale during his draft cycle. He came from a run-dominant collegiate scheme, which didn't allow him to shoulder the offense as a passer.

However, his upside as a 21-year-old prospect and intangibles still made him a first-round pick, who the Vikings traded up to select 10th overall in the 2024 class. Unfortunately, a knee injury ended his rookie campaign before it began, and he just didn't look ready in Year 2.

Unless McCarthy somehow showed significant growth and understanding of the position this offseason, Murray is a superior option.

Murray's combination of athleticism, arm talent and experience are all massive upgrades, even if the 28-year-old veteran struggled to elevate the Arizona Cardinals after being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 class. He's now entering one of the league's most QB-friendly schemes with an outstanding head coach/play-caller in Kevin O'Connell.

The Vikings need to make the obvious choice sooner rather than later so the offense can hit the ground running this fall.

"I was [in Arizona] for seven years," Murray told reporters. "I know I had two different offensive systems [there], but at the same time, you're getting all those reps. Now I have these split reps. It's me already being behind, not getting the amount of reps that you would typically want a guy to get learning an offense. That's probably the toughest part."