Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

Not too long ago Baylor came out of nowhere to take three of four meetings from Oklahoma, but the Sooners are 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread the last three seasons against the Bears. Oklahoma is heavily favored to make it four in a row over Baylor on Saturday afternoon in Norman.

College football point spread: The Sooners opened as 27-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 48.8-22.8 Sooners (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

The Bears bounced back from a loss to Duke two weeks ago to beat Kansas last week 26-7. Baylor scored touchdowns on three of its first four possessions of the game, led 23-0 at the half and held on from there for the win and the cover as a seven-point favorite.

On the day the Bears out-gained the Jayhawks 447-271 and held a 35/25 advantage in time of possession. Quarterback Charlie Brewer hit on 19 of 27 throws for 221 yards and three touchdowns and has now completed 63 percent of his passes this season. Baylor also ran the ball for 190 yards, and now goes against an OU defense that just allowed Army to run the ball for 339 yards.

The Bears are now 4-4 in Brewer's eight starts at quarterback.

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

The Sooners are 4-0 on the season after surviving the upset attempt of a game Army outfit last week 28-21 in overtime. Oklahoma scored touchdowns on its first three possessions of the game but allowed the Black Knights to tie the score at 21-21 late in the third quarter.

The Sooners had a chance to win in regulation but missed a 33-yard field goal at the buzzer. Oklahoma then scored on a Kyler Murray touchdown pass, his third of the game, in the top of the first OT, then held with a defensive stop in the bottom of the frame.

On the day Oklahoma got beat all over the stat sheet, as Army used several long drives to shorten the game. But Murray threw for 165 yards and ran for 71 more, while the OU defense came up with two late takeaways to hold off the Knights.

Two weeks ago the Sooners opened Big 12 play with a 37-27 victory at Iowa State, avenging that loss from last season.

Smart betting pick

Oklahoma won this matchup last year 49-41 but Baylor covered easily as a four-touchdown dog. Now, the Sooners are still national championship contenders, but the Bears are undoubtedly better than they were that day. Plus, playing at home means the spread is a little stiffer against OU. Baylor won't win this game but the smart money takes the points.

College football betting trends

Baylor is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games on the road vs Oklahoma.

The total has gone over in four of Oklahoma's last five games.

Oklahoma is 9-0 SU in its last nine games vs its conference.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.