Week 3 NFL Picks: Predictions, Advice for Latest Vegas Spreads, Odds and Props

The Kansas City Chiefs are off to an explosive start on offense, and they look like the NFL's most cohesive team when they have the ball.

They have rolled in two road games against respected teams, putting 38 points on the board in the opener against the Los Angeles Chargers and 42 in Week 2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

There's no reason to think Patrick Mahomes and his teammates will slow down at home against the San Francisco 49ers. The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites for that clash, per OddsShark.

Mahomes does not look like a first-year starter, and he could be on his way to an All-Pro-caliber or MVP-type season. He has already thrown 10 touchdown passes and looks acclimated to the Kansas City offense in his first season as a starter.

He has a significant physical advantage over most of his competitors because of his powerful arm, which allows him to throw deep sideline passes with velocity. He is also agile enough to get away from the pass rush and buy time with his feet.

Running back Kareem Hunt has not hit his stride (124 yards, 3.6 yards per carry), but head coach Andy Reid knows Hunt is capable of breaking long runs based on his speed and escapability. 

Tyreek Hill is off to a magical start at the wide receiver spot, with 12 catches for 259 yards and three touchdowns. He already has seven receptions of 20 yards or more. Sammy Watkins is starting to fit in, and tight end Travis Kelce can dominate on third-down plays and in the red zone.

The 49ers are going to have to be at their best in order to compete for 60 minutes against the Chiefs. Jimmy Garoppolo faced a tough assignment in Week 1, when the Niners played the Minnesota Vikings on the road (one TD, three interceptions), but he bounced back with a strong game against the Detroit Lions in Week 2. He threw two scoring passes and no picks in that game.

Garoppolo should be able to find open receivers against the Chiefs because Kansas City's defense (ranked 32nd overall) has been extremely generous this year.

Running back Matt Breida has run for 184 yards in two games, including a memorable 66-yard TD run against the Lions. Tight end George Kittle is probably Garoppolo's best receiver at this point.

The Niners should be able to hang in with the Chiefs well into the second half. But Kansas City's explosive offense will be too much in the fourth quarter, and they will win and cover this interconference matchup.

Week 3 Point Spreads and Predictions

Thursday, September 20

New York Jets at Cleveland (-3) (Over/Under: 39); Jets 27, Browns 23

Sunday, September 23

Buffalo at Minnesota (-17) (O/U: 41); Vikings 38, Bills 10

Cincinnati at Carolina (-3) (O/U: 43.5); Panthers 17, Bengals 16

Denver at Baltimore (-5) (O/U: 43); Ravens 24, Broncos 23

Green Bay (-3) at Washington (O/U: 46); Redskins 28, Packers 23

Indianapolis at Philadelphia (-6) (O/U: 47.5); Eagles 24, Colts 17

New York Giants at Houston (-6) (O/U: 41.5); Texans 23, Giants 13

New Orleans at Atlanta (-3) (O/U: 53); Falcons 30, Saints 23

Oakland at Miami (-3) (O/U: 44); Raiders 17, Dolphins 16

San Francisco at Kansas City (-6.5) (O/U: 56); Chiefs 31, 49ers 28

Tennessee at Jacksonville (-6.5) (O/U: 39.5); Jaguars 20, Titans 10

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) (O/U: 48); Rams 17, Chargers 12

Chicago (-4) at Arizona (O/U: 40); Bears 23, Cardinals 17

Dallas at Seattle (-3) (O/U: 44.5); Seahawks 16, Cowboys 12

New England (-6.5) at Detroit (O/U: 51.5); Patriots 30, Lions 24

Monday, September 24

Pittsburgh (-2) at Tampa Bay (O/U: 53.5); Buccaneers 33, Steelers 24

Odds according to OddsShark.

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams

The battle of Los Angeles does not have a special ring to it, but this is an attractive matchup between one of the more talented AFC teams against the NFC's potential Super Bowl representative.

The Los Angeles Rams have the best running back in the NFL in Todd Gurley, and his ability to show off his power and speed makes him a threat at all times. Gurley has 150 yards and three TDs through his first two games this year.

His presence in the lineup has helped quarterback Jared Goff to thrive. He is completing 64.6 percent of his passes, has thrown for 587 yards and has a 3-1 TD-interception ratio. Wide receivers Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods give Goff an array of targets who can make game-changing catches.

The Chargers will need Philip Rivers to get off to a sharp start against an aggressive Rams defense, which ranks third in yards allowed. Rivers will have to be decisive when throwing to Keenan Allen. Melvin Gordon is a fine running back, but he will have to be at his best against the Rams front seven. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald may be the best at his position in the league, and he can control the interior line play.

The Chargers should be able to stay close here, but look for the Rams to pull this game out at home in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions

The New England Patriots have yet to hit their stride after splitting their first two games against the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

They should have a much easier assignment against former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and the Lions. Don't expect Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to have any sympathy for Matty P, especially after Week 2's loss to the Jaguars.

Newly acquired Josh Gordon may not figure into the Patriots' game plan, but they should be able to light up the scoreboard. Rookie running back Sony Michel has speed and breakaway ability, and he will be running against the 32nd-ranked run defense. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, meanwhile, should be able to exploit the Detroit secondary.

The Detroit offense was much better against the 49ers in Week 2 than it was in the opener against the New York Jets. The Lions should be able to move the ball against a New England defense (27th overall), and Matthew Stafford could have one of his better games.

Look for these teams to put on an offensive show and go past the 51.5-point total. Play the over here.

Prop Bet

Handicappers who are looking for prop bets don't have the smorgasbord of props they will find in the NFL postseason or Super Bowl, but those who enjoy props can wager on individual players to score touchdowns in any given game.

Let's look at Thursday night's New York Jets-Cleveland Browns matchup. The Jets will try to rebound from their Week 2 loss to the Miami Dolphins, while the Browns are trying to win for the first time since 2016.

According to Oddschecker, Cleveland's Carlos Hyde is likely to score at some point in the game, with odds of 11-10 being offered. The Jets' Isaiah Crowell, a former Brown, is next at 13-8, followed by Bilal Powell and Quincy Enunwa at 15-8.

We will stay away from those favorites and go with a long shot. Rookie New York quarterback Sam Darnold is listed at 16-1, and if the Jets want to run a Philly Special type of play (the quarterback catches a pass from a running back or receiver) or the quarterback scores on a sneak, there would be a profitable payoff.