Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 19, 2018

Washington Redskins quarterback Alex Smith walks out of the tunnel prior to an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, Sept. 16, 2018, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Mark Tenally)
Mark Tenally/Associated Press

One of the most intriguing NFC matchups of Week 3 will take place in Washington on Sunday when the Redskins (1-1) host the Green Bay Packers (1-0-1) as small home underdogs at sportsbooks.

The Packers are coming off a 29-29 tie with the Minnesota Vikings last week with quarterback Aaron Rodgers suiting up and playing the entire game despite a sprained knee. Meanwhile, the Redskins fell 21-9 at home to the Indianapolis Colts following a 24-6 rout of the Arizona Cardinals on the road in Week 1.

   

NFL point spread: The Packers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.6-18.9 Redskins (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

   

Why the Packers can cover the spread

As long as Rodgers is healthy enough to play, Green Bay will have a chance to win and cover the spread. That is why the Packers are favored in this spot, Rodgers and Rodgers alone. Last week against the Vikings, he completed 30-of-42 passes for 281 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions while also carrying the ball three times for eight yards.

The fact that Rodgers was still able to take off and run with the ball is huge even though he later admitted he was still sore, as can be expected. Green Bay has won six of the past eight meetings with Washington, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, with a 7-2-1 mark against the spread in the previous 10 matchups.

  

Why the Redskins can cover the spread

The Redskins will try to avoid losing two games in a row at home after that disappointing performance versus the Colts that saw quarterback Alex Smith do just about everything but lead them on a touchdown drive. Smith's numbers were comparable to those of Rodgers in defeat, as he completed 33-of-46 passes for 292 yards with no interceptions.

The problem obviously was that there were no touchdowns for Washington after scoring three at Arizona in the season opener. The Packers have surrendered five offensive touchdowns in the first two games, including four last week.

  

Smart betting pick

The health of Rodgers remains a big concern for any NFL bettors thinking about betting on Green Bay. He is worried about the injury getting worse, and so should anyone who is considering backing the Pack. The Redskins are 7-4 both straight up and ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs, and they will pull off another upset victory here.

   

NFL betting trends

The total has gone over in the Packers' last three games vs the Redskins.

The total has gone over in 11 of the Packers' last 12 games on the road.

The Packers are 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in September.

   

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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