Fantasy Football Week 1 Workload Watch
Figuring out confusing backfields can give you a big advantage on the fantasy football waiver wire. If you pay attention to patterns in snap counts, type of usage and touches, you can get a jump on your competition to pick up a RB a week or two ahead of time.
Each week, this article will detail the snap counts, carries, targets and overall fantasy production of crowded backfields. Unfortunately, the snap counts and touches from preseason action largely don't tell us much, as teams kept their game plans basic. Plus, injuries may force teams to rely on veterans to open the season out of trust. That doesn't mean we'll see the same rotation all year.
This week, we'll guess the season leaders in snaps, carries and targets in eight of the murkiest backfields. We touched upon the backfields of the San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions and Indianapolis Colts in this week's B.S. Meter, so we'll address them in future editions of Workload Watch.
Note: All fantasy stats used to calculate finishes or snap counts are from FantasyPros. All advanced stats are calculated using data from Pro Football Reference. All stats are based on a points-per-reception (PPR) format.
Cleveland Browns
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The Cleveland Browns made two big splashes in the offseason to bolster their backfield. They signed Carlos Hyde to a three-year deal in mid-March, and they spent a second-round pick on Nick Chubb a month-and-a-half later.
Those two join Duke Johnson Jr. as a formidable group heading into 2018.
Last season, Isaiah Crowell led the team in carry percentage (53.7), while Johnson had a 16.4 percent target share along with 21.4 percent of the carries. With Hyde and Chubb in the mix, Johnson's carry share should drop. When you factor in the addition of a target hound like Jarvis Landry, an increased role for David Njoku (10.6 percent target share) and Josh Gordon on the field for the start of the season, Johnson's target share should drop as well.
The carry share is the biggest question for Hyde and Chubb. Hyde will open the season as the starter, and he comes off an impressive 2017 performance with the San Francisco 49ers. He was the No. 8 fantasy RB in PPR formats, averaging 14.6 fantasy points per game while playing in all 16 games. The presence of Chubb makes it easy to overlook Hyde, but there's no guarantee the rookie takes over the lead role.
Chubb's stock would rise significantly if Hyde gets hurt, but there's no reason to assume that happens. Johnson's role may not be as big as it was last year, although it still may be the most consistent.
Snaps leader: Hyde
Carries leader: Hyde
Targets leader: Johnson
Denver Broncos
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No one was surprised to see the Denver Broncos come out of the 2018 draft with a RB who had a chance to start in Week 1. Royce Freeman will fill that slot Sunday, according to Kyle Frederickson of the Denver Post, who reported that Freeman was listed atop the team's RB depth chart.
Freeman leads a thin Broncos RB group. Devontae Booker will serve as his backup, while undrafted rookie Phillip Lindsay is third on the depth chart. That puts Freeman in line for a sizable role. It's not outlandish to believe he can match C.J. Anderson's 53.6 percent carry share from last season, which led the Broncos. Anderson also had 7.2 percent of the targets last year, which is also in play for Freeman.
In his first two seasons, Booker racked up 61 receptions for 540 yards and a TD on 83 targets, along with 253 carries for 911 yards (3.6 yards per carry) and five rushing TDs. Booker is much better suited to be the team's passing-down back, which is where he'll have his most value. He had 6.9 percent of Denver's target share in 13 games last year, but that number should rise this season.
Snaps leader: Freeman
Carries leader: Freeman
Targets leader: Booker
Green Bay Packers
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At this time last season, the Green Bay Packers were gearing up for Ty Montgomery to lead a backfield that featured a pair of rookies in Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Once Montgomery went down in Week 4 with a rib injury, he never regained the lead role.
Jones had it for a short time when Williams also went down in Week 4, but he suffered a knee injury of his own. That put Williams back out in front, which is where he remained for the rest of the season.
Williams wound up leading the Packers backfield with 39.6 percent of the carry share and 6.1 percent of the target share. Jones finished with 21 percent of the carry share and 3.2 percent of the target share, while Montgomery went from leading the backfield to finishing with only 18.4 percent of the carry share and 5.6 percent of the target share.
Because Jones is suspended for the first two games of the season, Williams enters this season as the unquestioned leader of this backfield. He should keep that spot as long as he stays healthy and does his job. With Aaron Rodgers back in the fold, Williams shouldn't have to be the focal point of the offense like he was when Brett Hundley started nine games last season. If he keeps the offense on schedule and helps to protect Rodgers, Williams could lead the way for the whole season.
Jones is more dynamic than Williams, but his suspension puts him behind from the start. Montgomery is better suited to fill a joker role, as he can work out of the backfield or as a receiver lined up in the slot. Montgomery should be a solid bench option in PPR formats.
Snaps leader: Williams
Carries leader: Williams
Targets leader: Montgomery
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New England Patriots
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The New England Patriots' decision to use a first-round pick on Sony Michel wasn't a typical move for them. Yes, they had a need at RB after losing Dion Lewis to the Tennessee Titans in free agency, but they easily could have waited until later in the draft to address the position.
Landing on one of the NFL's best teams immediately put Michel on the fantasy radar. However, he missed the entire preseason thanks to a knee injury he suffered in early August that required a procedure. Michel has yet to return to full practice, according to Ryan Hannable of WEEI, so his status for the opener remains in doubt.
Even if Michel is available, the Pats likely won't use him in a big role right away. Still, you must consider the big picture, as he could play an important role for both the Patriots and your fantasy team once he's healthy and up to speed.
If Rex Burkhead can play through his own knee issue without any limitations, he could be the busiest Patriots RB early in the season. He's been dealing with a tear in his knee for the last month, but he remains a full participant in practice, per Jeff Howe of The Athletic. Burkhead handled 14.3 percent of the Patriots' carry share and 6.2 percent of the target share in 10 games last season. Depending on how quickly Michel is ready to contribute, both of those numbers could rise slightly for Burkhead.
James White is likely to replicate or increase his target share, which was at 12.3 percent in 2017 as New England's primary passing-down back. Jeremy Hill made the team over Mike Gillislee and could play a similar role, at least early in the season. Don't be surprised to see him steal some TDs from the prominent fantasy options in New England.
Snaps leader: Burkhead
Carries leader: Michel
Targets leader: White
New York Jets
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Are we still doing this?
The New York Jets keep finding ways to put someone in front of Bilal Powell, only for him to be their best and busiest back by the end of the season. When Matt Forte retired, they signed Isaiah Crowell to join Powell and Elijah McGuire. Crowell had four solid seasons with the Cleveland Browns, but he never cracked 1,000 yards and averaged only 4.1 yards per carry in 2017.
McGuire was tabbed for a bigger role in his second season, but he broke his foot at the end of July and will start the season on injured reserve for the first eight games. The combination of adding Crowell and a bigger role for McGuire seemed to put Powell on the back burner once again, but McGuire's injury keeps Powell on the fantasy radar.
In 2017, Powell led the Jets in carry share (41.7 percent) and added a 6.7 target share. Forte vacates 24.1 percent of the carries and a 9.1 percent target share. As long as he stays healthy, Crowell should lead the way on the ground, while Powell handles the majority of the targets in the backfield.
With Sam Darnold starting right away as a rookie, this backfield will be important to the Jets offense. Crowell could have some RB2 performances, but he's more of an RB3 that doesn't need to be in your lineup every week. Powell is a decent RB3 with the most upside in this backfield.
Snaps leader: Crowell
Carries leader: Crowell
Targets leader: Powell
Seattle Seahawks
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When a team finishes as a bottom-10 rushing offense in back-to-back seasons, it should address the RB position in the draft regardless of the talent it already has on the roster. The Seattle Seahawks did just that when they selected Rashaad Penny in the first round of this year's draft.
However, it doesn't mean Penny will open the season leading the backfield. Instead, Chris Carson will occupy that role.
Carson had plenty of buzz during the 2017 preseason, and he followed it up with a strong start in the regular season before a leg injury ended his year prematurely. The Seahawks wound up playing musical chairs in their backfield for most of the season, and Eddie Lacy wound up lead all Seattle backs with 16.9 percent of the carry share. Quarterback Russell Wilson led the team with a 23.2 percent carry share, which speaks to how bad the remaining backs were when Carson went down.
With Carson fully recovered before the start of offseason activities, he provided ample competition for Penny right away and performed well. When Penny broke his finger in mid-August, it put the rookie even further behind Carson. The second-year back took advantage of the open competition and opens the season on top of the depth chart. Penny's fantasy stock took a hit, although he should be ready for Week 1 after practicing in full Wednesday, according to John Boyle of Seahawks.com.
The combination of Carson and Penny could be annoying for fantasy owners, but it give the Seahawks a nice one-two punch after two disappointing seasons from the rushing attack. The leader of this backfield has RB2 potential, but Carson and Penny will limit each other's ceiling.
Snaps leader: Carson
Carries leader: Carson
Targets leader: Penny
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Much like the Seahawks, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers addressed a major need at RB during the draft, adding Ronald Jones with the No. 38 overall pick. Seeing as Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers were his top competition for touches, Jones seemed likely to quickly ascend to the top of the depth chart.
Unlike Michel and Penny, Jones was able to stay healthy during the preseason, but he performed terribly. He had only 22 yards on 28 carries and one reception for 37 yards on three targets. Even though he didn't get much help from the offensive line, Jones deserves blame as well. His struggles in the passing game were apparent, and he's still adjusting to the added responsibilities of being a pass protector at the pro level.
On the flip side, Barber had a great preseason and clearly won the starting job. He converted 15 carries into 87 yards and two TDs without a run longer than 18 yards, so he was consistent. Barber wound up with 27.7 percent of the carry share in 2017, which trailed Doug Martin's team-leading 35.4 percent. That's a low number for a lead back, so if Barber can hang onto the role, he should eclipse that percentage.
Jones doesn't have any fantasy value right now, but as a second-round pick, the Buccaneers will likely give him chances if he earns them. He'll enter the season third on the depth chart.
Snaps leader: Barber
Carries leader: Barber
Targets leader: Barber
Washington Redskins
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Losing rookie Derrius Guice to a torn ACL during the preseason was a major blow to both the Washington Redskins and the fantasy RB landscape. Guice looked like the clear No. 2 rookie RB behind Saquon Barkley, with a large gap between him and the rest of the pack. Washington drafted Guice to improve a backfield that lacked lead RB talent in Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley.
When Guice went down, Washington brought in Adrian Peterson and signed him on August 20. Four days later, he carried 11 times for 56 yards with the first-team offense in his only preseason action. Even though he signed after training camp, Peterson showed he had enough left in the tank to be named the starter for the 2018 season. That's a credit to Peterson, but also a indictment of Perine and Kelley.
The 33-year-old Peterson has been in the league since 2007, but he had only 193 carries in the last two seasons. Even though he'll start against Arizona on Sunday, fantasy owners should keep their expectations in check. He'll certainly have some RB2-level performances, but you're better off considering him an RB3 for fantasy.
Chris Thompson was the team's best back last season before he broke his leg in Week 11. At the time, he had 294 yards and a pair of TDs on 64 carries (4.6 yards per carry) along with 39 receptions for 510 yards and another four TDs on 54 targets. He was held out of this preseason as a precaution, but will be ready for Week 1.
According to John Keim of ESPN.com, head coach Jay Gruden said, "Chris looks fantastic. He's been great —his pass blocking and obviously his routes, and he's hitting the hole. He looks great. He's ready to go."
Thompson should be a change-of-pace to Peterson and the primary passing-down back for the Redskins. While he may not get as many touches as Peterson, his ceiling is higher.
Snaps leader: Peterson
Carries leader: Peterson
Targets leader: Thompson
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