Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles will begin their title defense against the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday as small home favorites at the sportsbooks to kick off the 2018 NFL season and may do so without starting quarterback Carson Wentz.

Fortunately, the Eagles still have reigning Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles to replace him after he filled in admirably at the end of last year when Wentz suffered a torn ACL.

NFL point spread: The Eagles opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.9-13.9 Eagles (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta will be out to play spoiler and try to avenge last year's 15-10 divisional playoff loss at Philadelphia that saw the team fail to convert on a fourth-and-goal play from the two-yard line late in the game. The Falcons were that close to advancing to the NFC Championship Game for the second year in a row and closed as 2.5-point road favorites.

Even with that defeat, Atlanta has won seven of its last 10 games overall straight up, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, to go along with an impressive 11-3 mark against the spread in its past 14 played under the lights in prime time.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Foles was obviously outstanding en route to helping the Eagles win their first Vince Lombardi Trophy last season as the best backup quarterback in the league. He is a savvy veteran and does a great job of limiting turnovers, which is one of the main reasons they kept him around in 2018 despite a high cost.

Philadelphia is a remarkable 11-1 SU in its last 12 home games, going 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS in the team's previous 14 as favorites as well. Those two numbers alone are worth betting on here.

Smart betting pick

There will be a lot of emotion for the Eagles playing at home in this nationally televised Thursday night matchup, and that will work against them like it did for the New England Patriots versus the Kansas City Chiefs a year ago in the same situation.

Atlanta is a hungry squad that is one season removed from making a run to the Super Bowl too, so look for Matt Ryan and company to get the best of Foles in this rematch.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in 10 of the Falcons' last 13 games against the Eagles.

The Falcons are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games at night.

The total has gone under in the Falcons' last seven games.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.