2018 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 4-Round Simulation with Notable Picks

Scheduling conflicts and procrastination have pushed a myriad of fantasy football drafts to the final hour. Those just now getting ready have some serious catching up to do.

After devouring as much news and analysis as possible, running through mock drafts is the next step. An unprepared drafter will panic when his or her plans go awry. Someone who has experimented multiple scenarios, on the other hand, can easily adapt on the fly. 

To get a sense of how the early rounds unfold, I conducted a mock draft using FantasyPros' Draft Wizard on Saturday. I set the simulation to a 12-team, half-point-per-reception (PPR) league with the AI competition using the site's aggregate rankings and average draft position (ADP).

I randomly drew the sixth pick, which proved far more pleasant than anticipated.

Round 1

1.1: Todd Gurley, RB, LAR

1.2: Le'Veon Bell, RB, PIT

1.3: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL

1.4: David Johnson, RB, ARI

1.5: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, NYG

1.6: Antonio Brown, WR, PIT

1.7: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU

1.8: Alvin Kamara, RB, NO

1.9: Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG

1.10: Melvin Gordon, RB, LAC

1.11: Leonard Fournette, RB, JAC

1.12: Julio Jones, WR, ATL

My Pick: Antonio Brown, WR, PIT

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

No. 6 is my least favorite draft slot. Unless, of course, Antonio Brown inexplicably falls.

I was prepared to take DeAndre Hopkins once Brown and the quadrant of running backs went in the opening five picks. The contrarian automator picking fifth instead chose Odell Beckham Jr., gifting me the clear-cut top wide receiver.

As much as I'd love to procure a bell-cow back, Brown offers far more security to open the draft. Take his worst individual stats from each of the last five seasons, and you still get 101 receptions, 1,284 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.

Per FantasyPros' scoring archives, he finished each of those seasons as a top-three fantasy wideout. Barring an injury, the reasonable floor is getting a late-first, early-second round value. I'd take the Pittsburgh Steelers' reliable superstar as early as No. 3 in a PPR format.

Round 2

2.1: Michael Thomas, WR, NO

2.2: Kareem Hunt, RB, KC

2.3: Keenan Allen, WR, LAC

2.4: Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN

2.5: Davante Adams, WR, GB

2.6: Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR

2.7: Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL

2.8: A.J. Green, WR, CIN

2.9: Jordan Howard, RB, CHI

2.10: Adam Thielen, WR, MIN

2.11: Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE

2.12: LeSean McCoy, RB, BUF

My Pick: Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Brown fell into my lap, so I can't get too angry about Christian McCaffrey getting sniped right before I could steal another stud. Although Devonta Freeman isn't as exciting, he'll get the job done as my top running back. 

Freeman's 29 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons ties Todd Gurley for an NFL lead. He has averaged a sturdy 15.3 carries per contest and 4.4 yards per run during that time frame while finishing No. 1, 6 and 13 in half-PPR points among running backs.

Declining pass-catching involvement has nevertheless banished him from the first round. The 26-year-old also missed two games last season after suffering the third reported concussion of his career, so he's far from a money-in-the-bank choice.

That's why he was the 12th running back taken. This is the earliest I'm comfortable picking him, but I typically prefer the receivers available in Round 3. Although it would have been a tougher choice if Keenan Allen or Davante Adams were still unclaimed, I'm fine with forgoing A.J. Green.

I didn't necessarily plan on handcuffing Freeman, but I couldn't resist when Tevin Coleman fell to the ninth round. He scored three touchdowns in two games without Freeman, so he'd recreate the starter's second-round value if promoted to the starting spotlight.

Round 3

3.1: Mike Evans, WR, TB

3.2: Joe Mixon, RB, CIN

3.3: Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN

3.4: T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND

3.5: Tyreek Hill, WR, KC

3.6: Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN

3.7: Amari Cooper, WR, OAK

3.8: Travis Kelce, TE, KC

3.9: Jerick McKinnon, RB, SF [Note: McKinnon is out for the season after tearing his ACL, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.]

3.10: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI

3.11: Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB

3.12: Kenyan Drake, RB, MIN

My Pick: Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

I might have taken Larry Fitzgerald if not for locking down two trustworthy anchors in the opening round. This gave me the courage to take a shot on Stefon Diggs, a riskier option with legitimate first-round upside.

The speedster is unarguable at his best. He bunched seven of his eight touchdowns in the Minnesota Vikings' first and final three games. Receivers coach Darrell Hazell evaluated the rising star to the Star Tribune's Chris Hine.

"His explosion when he is next to a defender, it’s uncommon," Hazell said. "His ability to create separation in a 3-yard box is what makes him really special. When he gets on the hip of a guy, the distance that he creates in a split second is what makes him very unique."

Diggs had compiled 391 receiving yards and four touchdowns in as many games before a hamstring injury hampered that explosiveness. After finishing the season strong, he showcased his sky-high ceiling with 207 yards and an unforgettable touchdown in two postseason tilts.

The health risk is considerable, but it's the only thing stopping him from registering his first 1,000-yard campaign with 80-90 catches. He has averaged 5.0 receptions per game during his three-year, and new Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins filed a 67.2 completion percentage in that same stretch.

Round 4

4.1: Doug Baldwin, WR, SEA

4.2: Derrick Henry, RB, TEN

4.3: Alex Collins, RB, BAL

4.4: Zach Ertz, TE, PHI

4.5: Corey Davis, WR, TEN

4.6: Josh Gordon, WR, CLE

4.7: Lamar Miller, RB, HOU

4.8: Golden Tate, WR, DET

4.9: Jay Ajayi, RB, PHI

4.10: Tom Brady, QB, NE

4.11: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, PIT

4.12: Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA

My Pick: Lamar Miller, RB, HOU

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

There were a couple of notable reaches this round. While Corey Davis wields league-winning upside, making him the 18th wideout off the board is awfully risky after he failed to reach the end zone until the playoffs. With Chris Carson poised to start in the Seattle Seahawks' backfield, Rashaad Penny's consensus ADP on FantasyPros has fallen to No. 75.

Some readers may consider my Lamar Miller pick one of those reaches. When I recently plucked him in the fifth round of a 10-team Yahoo draft, its report card  reprimanded me for reaching above his No. 65 ADP.

Am I so out of touch? No, it's the default rankings that are wrong. 

The Houston Texans' running back averaged a career-worst 3.7 yards per carry and lost playing time late last season. He still ranked 16th in the position's fantasy leaderboard by stockpiling 1,215 yards. That's nothing unusual for the steady producer:

As for the lacking competition, Houston officially placed D'Onta Foreman on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, per ESPN's Adam Schefter:

That leaves Alfred Blue, who has registered a career 3.6 yards per rush, as the only threat to Miller's workload through Week 6. Having amassed 87.3 yards per game started by Deshaun Watson, Miller is well on his way to another top-20 finish.

Rest of Draft

Beginning with a pair of running backs and receivers opened the next few selections to all avenues. I took what the draft gave me, which was two more undervalued rushers in Royce Freeman and Marshawn Lynch. 

I made Jamison Crowder my third wideout in the seventh before grabbing Trey Burton in the eighth. Quarterbacks won't fall in every draft room, but I knew I could wait when picking against the experts. Philip Rivers will do the trick in Round 12.

Overall, I like the mix of stability and upside. I also, however, wouldn't plan on again getting Brown with the sixth pick. Few champions will admit it, but luck is often a big piece to the puzzle.

Note: Fantasy scoring information obtained from FantasyPros.