St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: Odds, Analysis, MLB Betting Pick

The Chicago Cubs (55-38) will try to increase their lead atop the National League Central against the St. Louis Cardinals (48-46) on Thursday when they kick off the second half of the season as solid home favorites at the sportsbooks. The Cubs lead the Milwaukee Brewers by 2.5 games and the Cardinals by 7.5 for first place in the division thanks to a three-game winning streak.

MLB betting line: The Cubs opened as -150 favorites (wager $150 to win $100), according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

MLB betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 5.6-3.9, Cubs (MLB picks on every game).

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Why the Cardinals can pay on the MLB lines

St. Louis underachieved in the first half and took action by firing manager Mike Matheny, replacing him with Mike Shildt on an interim basis through the rest of the year. The Cardinals should get a spark from the move, knowing that nobody's job is safe at this point.

The players need to turn things around for the future, starting with pitcher Carlos Martinez (6-5, 3.08 ERA). The 26-year-old Puerto Rican has been viewed as a potential ace at times but needs to perform better and win more games. Martinez picked up half of his wins in his past four starts after seeing his ERA rise from 1.40 to 3.24.

Why the Cubs can pay on the MLB lines

Chicago remains the best team in the NL Central even though Milwaukee has proved to be a worthy contender similar to last year. Like St. Louis, this team needs better pitching in the second half, and Kyle Hendricks (6-8, 3.92 ERA) is capable of settling in as the No. 2 starter behind ace Jon Lester.

Hendricks did finish the first half on a positive note, giving up five earned runs and 17 hits in 18.1 innings with two walks and 13 strikeouts over his last three outings. He continues to be a better pitcher at Wrigley Field as well, going 3-5 with a 3.18 ERA in nine starts there this season.

Smart betting pick

The Cardinals have dropped two of the previous three meetings with the Cubs after winning four of the first five to start the season, according to the OddsShark MLB Database. Chicago got off to a slow start though and has played well lately en route to posting the best record in the NL.

The Cubs also lead the league in run differential at plus-114 and will begin the second half with an easy victory here.

MLB betting trends

St. Louis is 2-4 in its last six games

The total has gone over in five of St. Louis' last six games.

The total has gone over in four of Chicago's last five games.

All MLB odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.