UFC 223 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Khabib vs. Iaquinta

The UFC 223 fight card has been a moving target, to put it nicely. 

What was once a highly anticipated card featuring Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson fighting for the lightweight title has been dismantled by injuries, bad weight cuts and an inexplicable attack from Conor McGregor, who will lose a title on the card without even stepping into the Octagon. 

Shaheen Al-Shatti of MMA Fighting recapped all the volatility surrounding fight week:

Those were just the changes to the main event. McGregor's antics cost the card three fights, as Artem Lobov-Alex Caceres, Michael Chiesa-Anthony Pettis and Ray Borg-Brandon Moreno were all scratched as a result. 

What's left is an intriguing card with just nine fights, but it's still worth checking out. 

If anything, the co-main event between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Rose Namajunas for the women's strawweight title is the highlight. The rematch is a strong contender for Fight of the Night.

Here's a look at the complete card:

Main Card (Pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET)

• Khabib Nurmagomedov (-500) vs. Al Iaquinta (+350)
• Rose Namajunas (-110) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-120)
• Renato Moicano (-105) vs. Calvin Kattar (-125)
• Zabit Magomedsharipov (-700) vs. Kyle Bochniak (+450)
• Joe Lauzon (-175) vs. Chris Gruetzemacher (+145)

Preliminary Card (FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m. ET)

• Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-210) vs. Felice Herrig (+170)
• Bec Rawlings (+160) vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith (-200)
• Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-110) vs. Evan Dunham (-120)
• Devin Clark (-115) vs. Mike Rodriguez (-115)

Note: All odds via OddsShark. Moneyline denotes amount won on a $100 bet. For instance, a fighter with +130 odds would net $130 on a $100 bet. 

Predictions

Nurmagomedov Wins Lightweight Title

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For the UFC, it seems this weekend has been about moving past Conor McGregor as the lightweight champion. With his wrecking of this card, that's probably true, and it would appear Nurmagomedov is the man set to take that title. 

The belt is definitely on the line for the Dagestani grappler, although it is not officially for Iaquinta, as he weighed in 0.2 pounds over the 155-pound championship limit. 

Nurmagomedov is a terrifying grappler who sports a 25-0 record. Those 25 wins feature eight knockouts, eight submissions and nine decisions. He can knock out opponents, submit them or simply wear them down to nothing over the course of a three- or five-round fight. 

That likely explains why he's remained willing to take on any challenge he's been faced with this week, as reported by Ariel Helwani of MMA Fighting:

Now he'll have five to find a way to beat Iaquinta, who has fought once since 2015. 

Iaquinta is a strong boxer, but disputes with the UFC have left him out in the cold. He hasn't fought since knocking out Diego Sanchez in April 2017. 

To beat Nurmagomedov, Iaquinta needs to be able to fight fire with fire. Thus far, the Eagle has exerted his pressure style against every opponent he's faced. If Iaquinta is to win, it's going to be because he found a way to back him down.

There's the potential for a massive upset here. Iaquinta's long layoff could mean he's being underrated. After all, he's on a five-fight win streak with four finishes, even if it extends all the way back to 2014. 

What's more likely is that Ragin' Al winds up looking a lot like the other opponents who have stood across the cage from Nurmagomedov. All three of Iaquinta's career losses have come by way of submission, and this one is likely to end the same way. 

Prediction: Nurmagomedov via second-round submission

Jedrzejczyk Gets Her Revenge

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It's fair to disagree with the timing of Jedrzejczyk getting to jump right back into the Octagon with Namajunas, but you can't say it isn't an intriguing matchup. 

Namajunas stunned Joanna Violence in November with a first-round knockout to win the strawweight title. Now, the former champion will have the opportunity to get her title right back with an immediate rematch. 

The opening minutes of this bout will be key. In the first fight, Jedrzejczyk was never able to find her range, and a confident Namajunas landed high-impact strikes out of the gate. The result was a quick finish before the champion even figured out where her sweet spot was. 

This time, Jedrzejczyk will go into the bout with the experience to know that establishing her range won't be as easy as it has been against shorter opponents. Namajunas is one of the few fighters in the division who can match Jedrzejczyk's 65-inch reach. 

Namajunas could repeat history. Jedrzejczyk has always been a slow starter, and it's possible that the mental scars of losing in lopsided fashion will show when she's staring at Thug Rose across the cage. 

But if that doesn't play a factor and she's able to avoid Namajunas' early aggression, then this matchup tilts in favor of the former champion. 

Even though Namajunas has power, Jedrzejczyk's striking is still much cleaner. Her average output of 6.76 significant strikes per minute nearly doubles Namajunas' 3.56, and she takes fewer strikes (2.48 to 3.05), per FightMetric.

It's going to be a war and is the favorite for Fight of the Night, but a longer battle favors Jedrzejczyk, and it seems unlikely Namajunas will be able to successfully blitz her again. 

Prediction: Jedrzejczyk via decision

Moicano Edges Out Kattar

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The pressure should be on for Jedrzejczyk-Namajunas 2 to live up to the hype, because the featherweight matchup between Renato Moicano and Calvin Kattar is set up to be a slobberknocker. 

Neither fighter has made waves in the media in the frenzied buildup to this card, but they both bring excitement.

In fact, they are two of the busiest fighters on the card:

These two—as Mike Goldberg would say—are virtually identical. They are both 5'11". They both have a 72-inch reach. They both like to push the pace and rely on volume to wear down opponents in the striking game. 

Three differences stand out, though. 

Kattar is the better boxer. He has more power in his hands, lands the cleaner punches and fights behind an impressive jab. If it turns out to be a pure boxing match, Kattar holds the cards. 

However, the other two differences are in Moicano's favor. First, he's the better defensive fighter. FightMetric numbers say that Kattar is actually hit more than he hits opponents (6.27 to 6.34 significant strikes per minute). Moicano, meanwhile, lands twice as many strikes as his opponents. 

Moicano's grappling is also superior; he's a jiu-jitsu black belt with five submission wins. He has a Plan B. 

That could be useful, as it is easy to see this being tied at one round apiece heading into the third and final frame. 

If that's the case, Moicano can mix things up and take Kattar to the mat, where he has a bigger advantage than Kattar does on the feet. 

Prediction: Moicano via decision