NFL Free Agents 2018: Predicting This Year's Biggest Duds

NFL free agency is a whirlwind of activity with a new signing seemingly every few minutes when the market first opens. 

But the most successful teams often stay away from that madness and its potential salary-cap land mines.

There are exceptions. The 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars, for example, nearly went to the Super Bowl after adding cornerback A.J. Bouye and defensive end Calais Campbell to an imposing unit. Bouye was part of a dominant top-ranked secondary, and Campbell tied for second in the league with 14.5 sacks.

We don't have to go back far to see free-agency failures, though. Take a look at the money handed out during the 2016 offseason. Running back Doug Martin has already been cut by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after signing a five-year contract that gave him $15 million guaranteed. And the Indianapolis Colts traded tight end Dwayne Allen one season after signing him to a four-year deal worth $29.4 million.

Bad decisions and wasted money are abundant in free agency, and 2018 won't be any different. In fact, it might be worse than usual.

Here's a look at the potential duds of NFL free agency with the major spending done.

Jordy Nelson, Oakland Raiders Wide Receiver

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Jordy Nelson is at the heart of Jon Gruden's quest to build a football team best suited to win games two decades ago.

The newly signed Oakland Raiders wide receiver agreed to a two-year deal after being cut by the Green Bay Packers. Going into his age-33 season (his birthday is in May), Nelson still received $13 million in guaranteed money spread out over both years of his new contract, per Spotrac.

Even if we try to set aside his age, that's a monstrous number. Nelson cratered in 2017 and was unable to create the same deep separation through speed and deceptive route running that helped him thrive in previous seasons. He averaged 9.1 yards per reception and finished with 482 receiving yards, his lowest single-season total since 2009.

Sure, the absence of Aaron Rodgers for much of the season didn't help Nelson—or anyone in the Packers offense. But there was a time not long ago when Nelson had the talent to produce regardless of who was under center. Now that's gone, and the Rodgers excuse only goes so far when Nelson's teammate Davante Adams ended 2017 with 885 yards on 74 catches over only 14 games.

Maybe Nelson can still contribute, perhaps as a solid slot receiver at this stage in his career. But it's doubtful he can do enough to justify the guaranteed money in his new contract.

Danny Amendola, Miami Dolphins Wide Receiver

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Danny Amendola is a playoff superhero, a label he'll have forever in New England. The former Patriot shined under the league's brightest spotlight, especially during the 2018 playoffs when he exploded for 26 catches for 348 yards and two touchdowns.

The problem is what he would do over the 16 games prior to that. Or rather, what he wouldn't do.

Amendola is at best a fine slot receiver and a second or third option in any offense. He'll be a few months away from his 33rd birthday when the 2018 season begins and hasn't done enough to earn the $6 million guaranteed the Miami Dolphins gave him during free agency.

Amendola agreed to a two-year contract worth $12 million. That average annual value is only slightly behind the paycheck of Golden Tate, the Detroit Lions wide receiver who has logged two straight seasons with 1,000-plus yards. He's earning $6.2 million annually on a deal signed in 2014 when the salary cap was much lower.

Amendola, meanwhile, has suffered through an injury-plagued career, missing 33 games over nine seasons. Worse, he's never topped 700 receiving yards in a season.

Trent Murphy, Buffalo Bills Defensive End/Outside Linebacker

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Trent Murphy has both a name pulled straight from a '70s cop drama and far too much money for a pass-rusher fresh off missing a season with a torn ACL and MCL.

The new Buffalo Bills defensive end sat out 2017 due to that severe injury suffered during the preseason. He was already scheduled to miss four games after violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

The Bills still gave $22.5 million over three years, including $10.4 million guaranteed, to a defender seven months removed from tearing two knee ligaments. Even if we optimistically assume Murphy returns fully healed in 2018, his prior production shows just one season of high-level play.

Murphy broke out in 2016 with nine sacks and 47 tackles for the Washington Redskins. He also recorded a career-high 55 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus.

But the second-round pick in 2014 tallied only six sacks over his first two seasons. Even after a significant injury, the Bills paid for the breakout version of Murphy, and it's difficult to have confidence that player will return.

Doug Martin, Oakland Raiders Running Back

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In his quest to field a Pro Bowl team from about 2014, Raiders coach Jon Gruden also aggressively pursued running back Doug Martin and added him to a crowded backfield.

Martin was signed to a one-year contract, or in industry parlance, the "prove it" deal. Terms haven't been disclosed, but given the short length, it's safe to assume the Raiders' financial risk is minimal.

That makes the signing slightly easier to stomach. But the thought that Martin could fill any significant role gets your gut churning again.

Martin has had plenty of chances to prove he still belongs on an NFL roster, but in recent years he's been injury-prone, ineffective and concerning away from the field. That's a toxic blend for most teams other than the Raiders.

At 29 years old, he's closing in on an age when many running backs start to break down. That process has already begun for Martin, who has logged just two 16-game seasons in his six-year career, missing time due to repeated injuries and a four-game suspension.

Both of those full seasons were spectacular, as the 5'9", 223-pound runner piled up 1,926 yards from scrimmage in 2012 and 1,673 in 2015. But the memory of that Martin is fading. Over the 2016 and 2017 seasons he averaged 2.9 yards per carry on 282 attempts.

Martin will likely prove only what we already know: He doesn't have much left to give.

Sam Bradford, Arizona Cardinals Quarterback

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The Arizona Cardinals led the league in quarterback desperation heading into the 2018 offseason. It was a nervous feeling that went beyond the retirement of Carson Palmer as both Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton became free agents.

That left the Cardinals' QB depth chart barren. Every team wants to own Boardwalk in the NFL's game of quarterback Monopoly, and the Cardinals couldn't even land Baltic Avenue.

They had to throw money at someone, and Sam Bradford could be a fine short-term solution. The money he'll be paid, however, is not so fine.

Bradford is 30 years old and has endured repeated knee issues. That started in 2013 when he tore his left ACL seven games into the season. Then he ripped apart the same ACL during a preseason game in 2014.

In 2017 with the Minnesota Vikings, his team made the playoffs and advanced to the NFC Championship Game despite getting just one full game out of its Week 1 starting quarterback. Bradford had a sore knee and was replaced by Case Keenum as the starter in Week 2; he appeared in one more game before landing on injured reserve in November. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said March 1 the quarterback has a degenerative condition, via NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.

The Cardinals still committed to Bradford for two years by giving him $15 million in guaranteed money ($20 million total) and a $10 million signing bonus spread evenly between 2018 and 2019.

Jimmy Graham, Green Bay Packers Tight End

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Tight end Jimmy Graham could be rejuvenated with the Green Bay Packers. Catching passes from quarterback Aaron Rodgers has done wonders for the careers of lesser talents.

Maybe the five-time Pro Bowler will dial it back to 2011, his best NFL season when he finished with 1,310 receiving yards.

Maybe he won't play like a large target who was useful almost exclusively in the red zone during the 2017 season, when Graham produced just 520 yards but scored 10 times.

But all those stars need to align for a tight end who will turn 32 years old midway through the 2018 season and has lost some of his downfield explosiveness. That isn't an ideal situation for the Packers, who are set to pay Graham $30 million over the next three years ($11 million guaranteed).

By making him the highest-paid tight end on an annual basis, the Packers are paying for the younger Graham, not the veteran who averaged a mere 9.1 yards per reception in 2017. And since the Packers spread his signing bonus out over two years, Graham will carry a dead cap hit of $7.3 million in 2019. Translated from cap speak to normal language, that means the Packers have effectively committed for two years.

If Graham morphs back into what we saw with the New Orleans Saints earlier in his career, then there's no issue. But that's a tough ask for a player who's aging and already has one crippling injury on his career medical report.

Nate Solder, New York Giants Offensive Tackle

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A lack of supply for an in-demand item drives prices up. That's Page 1 in any high school economics textbook. It comes up again when you put off Christmas shopping and either pay double the price for the trendy toy your kid wants or fight off Sinbad.

The New York Giants learned that lesson the hard way when they had to overpay for left tackle Nate Solder.

If the Giants want to squeeze another few seasons out of quarterback Eli Manning, he needs better protection. The 37-year-old finished 2017 with a passer rating of just 64.4 when pressured, per PFF, which ranked 22nd.

He needs an opportunity to find more comfort in the pocket, but the left tackle market in free agency was weak. Solder, who will turn 30 years old in April, was alone in the top tier.

To secure him, the Giants had to bid aggressively, and they wound up giving the former Patriot a four-year contract worth $62 million with $34.8 million guaranteed.

With an average annual salary of $15.5 million, he's now the league's highest-paid tackle—a high perch for a blindside protector ranked 45th by PFF among pass-blockers in 2017.

Case Keenum, Denver Broncos Quarterback

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The Denver Broncos couldn't afford to flounder at quarterback any longer. They have talent elsewhere on the offense, especially at wide receiver with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. And a third-ranked defense in 2017 is still capable of pushing the Broncos deep into the playoffs.

They need someone at the helm of the offense who can provide above-average play. The problem is that in today's NFL, as the value of quarterbacks skyrockets each year, signing even a second-tier passer gets expensive fast.

Which the Broncos discovered when they signed Case Keenum.

Keenum raised his profile sharply in 2017 while guiding the Vikings to the playoffs. He completed 67.6 percent of his pass attempts and averaged 7.4 yards per throw. He also threw 22 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions with a passer rating of 98.3.

But the sample size of Keenum as a quality starter is small, mostly limited to those 15 games in 2017 during his age-29 season. Keenum flamed out with the Los Angeles Rams the season before with a passer rating of just 76.4.

The 2017 season was his sixth in the NFL but Keenum's first as a starter over most of a season (he started 14 regular-season games). But because there's such intense demand for quarterbacks, the Broncos had to pay for the unknown and guarantee a good chunk of Keenum's 2019 salary on his two-year deal.

Keenum will get $36 million over two years, and $25 million is guaranteed. However, of that guaranteed money, $7 million is still due in 2019, per Spotrac.

The Broncos have essentially committed to him for both seasons. That's a scary thought when Keenum is trying to repeat his one year of success in a new offense without the guidance of former Vikings offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur.

Star Lotulelei, Buffalo Bills Defensive Tackle

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The Buffalo Bills defense was gashed by the run in 2017. The solution was to get a large, powerful and reasonably mobile body up front.

At 6'2" and 315 pounds, defensive tackle Star Lotulelei definitely has the large part covered. But the 28-year-old, who the Bills signed to a five-year contract worth $50 million, has fallen off after a strong start to his career highlighted by 42 tackles in 2013.

Lotulelei has averaged only 24.8 tackles in the four seasons since his rookie year. His play has plunged downward, which is why the Carolina Panthers decided to move on by first drafting Vernon Butler in 2016 and then signing Dontari Poe this offseason. In 2016 Lotulelei's PFF grade fell to 46.9, and he improved only slightly to 49.5 in 2017.

The Bills are paying him like a top-15 defensive tackle with an average annual salary of $10 million. Lotulelei hasn't played at that level for a while now, but Bills head coach Sean McDermott is surely confident he can reignite the former first-round pick's career after working with him in Carolina.

Anthony Hitchens, Kansas City Chiefs Inside Linebacker

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The Kansas City Chiefs had a clear need at linebacker heading into free agency. Derrick Johnson, a longtime anchor of the Chiefs' defensive front, became a free agent and wasn't re-signed.

A once strong defense against the run crumbled in 2017, allowing an average of 118.1 yards per game (25th). The Chiefs had to sign a linebacker who can be a quick upgrade, even in a weak market at the position. Inevitably, that meant they would overpay.

The Chiefs gave Anthony Hitchens a five-year contract worth $45 million. At an average annual value of $9 million, Hitchens' new deal ranks in the top 10 at his position, per Spotrac. That's a steep sum for a linebacker who might be effective as a run-stuffer but is mostly limited to a two-down role. Hitchens typically came off the field in passing situations for the Dallas Cowboys in 2017 and played just 52.2 percent of the defensive snaps.

He needs to dominate as a run defender to live up to his contract, and Hitchens hasn't logged 100-plus tackles in a season over four years in the NFL.