Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick
The Houston Rockets (30-12) are expected to have leading scorer James Harden back in the lineup but will be missing some other key players on Thursday when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves (29-17) as home favorites.
Harden (hamstring) has missed the past seven games, with the Rockets going 4-3 during that stretch, and he has targeted this matchup for his return.
Point spread: The Rockets opened as six-point favorites; the total is at 222, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 110.9-109.1, Timberwolves (NBA picks on every game)
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Why the Timberwolves can cover the spread
While Harden will likely be back, Houston will be without two other players in Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green due to their roles in a post-game incident following a 113-102 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday.
Ariza and Green were both suspended two games, and they have combined to average 28 points for the Rockets.
The Timberwolves are a pretty deep team, so they should be able to take advantage of their absence by wearing their opponent down. Minnesota is coming off a 108-102 loss to the Orlando Magic on Tuesday but had won five in a row prior to that setback.
Why the Rockets can cover the spread
Houston is fortunate that Harden and Chris Paul were not suspended as well, so expect each of them to be extra motivated to help their team here with Ariza and Green out.
The Rockets have won 10 of the past 11 meetings with the Timberwolves, according to the OddsShark NBA Database, and 14 of 16 dating back to 2013.
Even though this is a much-improved Minnesota team, Houston remains more talented, especially in the backcourt with Harden and Paul. The Timberwolves are also just 11-11 on the road.
Smart betting pick
The Rockets have suffered a quarter of their losses with Harden out and more than half (seven) without Paul. But when the two play together, they are almost unstoppable, making them one of the most dangerous teams in the league.
Minnesota's backcourt of Jeff Teague and Jimmy Butler is good, but they will not be able to contain their Houston counterparts. Look for Harden and Paul to double up Teague and Butler in the scoring column as the Rockets roll over the Timberwolves with another easy victory and cover.
NBA betting trends
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
The total has gone under in eight of Minnesota's last 11 games.
Houston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games.
All NBA odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
