Sugar Bowl 2018: Alabama vs. Clemson TV Schedule, Time and Odds
The third installment of the rivalry between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers in the College Football Playoff takes place at the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day.
Alabama took the first of the three showdowns in the 2016 national championship game, while Clemson gained revenge to win the 2017 national championship.
Although there won't be a trophy directly on the line during the third meeting of college football powers, and some of the faces have changed, the same intensity will still be there when the game kicks off inside the Superdome, Louisiana.
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Date: Monday, January 1, 2018
Time: 8:45 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: Watch ESPN
Odds: Alabama (-3); Over/Under: 47
How Alabama Will Win
As hard as it may sound, the Crimson Tide aren't focused on the past coming into New Orleans, Louisiana.
Alabama has to take the Sugar Bowl as just another game and eliminate some of the emotion from last year's loss in order to have full focus and return to the National Championship.
"I'm not thinking about the past, I'm not thinking about the future, I'm thinking about the now," Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts said, per Paul Myerberg of USA Today. "I think the biggest thing is to focus on us right now and know that we've got a challenge in front of us."
Hurts may not have the best stats of the four quarterbacks involved in the College Football Playoff, but he's reliable in the pocket and rarely turns the ball over. The only one of Hurts' 222 passes that was intercepted this season came in the October 14 win over Arkansas.
The lack of turnovers shows the improvement Hurts has made in his decision-making. As a freshman, he was picked off on nine occasions. Although he threw more touchdowns in his first year, Hurts has grown into his role as offensive leader of the Crimson Tide.
Hurts will also join Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough in the Alabama rushing game, While having a three-headed attack may seem ideal for the Tide, none of the three players have recorded a 100-yard game since Harris picked up 125 yards on nine carries in the victory over Arkansas.
If Hurts is limited in the pocket by Clemson's pass-rushers, and the remaining two are shut down, the Crimson Tide may end up on the losing end for the second straight season.
The biggest concern on defense for the Crimson Tide is their depth at linebacker, as Rashaan Evans will start inside after injuries ravaged Alabama's depth chart.
Even with a depleted group of linebackers, Alabama will have plenty of talented players roaming the field on defense, including defensive backs Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ronnie Harrison as well as defensive lineman Raekwon Davis. Look for the big-name members of the Alabama defense to impose their will on the contest early to instill more confidence in their teammates.
How Clemson Will Win
It's easy to talk about Kelly Bryant replacing Deshaun Watson and ask whether Hunter Renfrow can repeat his performance against Alabama from the national championship a year ago as the top Clemson storylines, but the main one to watch may be the play of the Tigers defensive front.
The big uglies in the front seven don't receive a ton of attention, but Clelin Ferrell, Christian Wilkins and others could be the real difference-makers in a game that is expected to be won by the tightest of margins.
In six games against ranked opponents, Ferrell racked up 31 tackles, with 12 of them coming against NC State on November 4. Wilkins' standout game came in Week 2 against Auburn in which he recorded 10 tackles and 1.5 sacks. The junior had 25 tackles in the six matchups with Top 25 teams.
In the 2017 national championship, the Clemson defense had seven sacks and five tackles for loss. If the Tigers are able to get the same amount of pressure on Hurts, it could be a long night for the Alabama sophomore quarterback.
When it comes to attacking Alabama's absences at linebacker, it would be wise of Bryant to work on the short passing game in the first half. Once the Crimson Tide adjust, the Tigers could open up the field and capitalize in one-on-one coverage through Deon Cain and Renfrow.
Bryant will also look for his running backs to break down the middle of the field in both the passing and running games. If Travis Etienne and Tavien Feaster are able to break through the line of scrimmage, they'll challenge the Tide linebackers to step up and be the defensive playmakers.
Just like Alabama, the Tigers have three options on the ground in Etienne, Feaster and Bryant. There's also a lack of 100-yard rushing performances in the Clemson backfield, as Etienne and Feaster have just one triple-digit showing to their names.
It won't take just one star to defeat Alabama, but if certain parts of the offense are shut down like the run game, it will make Bryant's life harder and could lead to a Crimson Tide victory.
Prediction
The spread for the Sugar Bowl is three points for a reason, and in reality it could probably be smaller.
Points are expected to be at a premium with two quality defenses going at it, and the minute details could end up deciding the contest.
We're giving the edge to the Tigers because of their ferocious defensive front that should wreak havoc for 60 minutes.
Clemson 24, Alabama 20
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
All statistics obtained from ESPN.com and Sports Reference.
Odds obtained from Oddsshark.com.
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