Outback Bowl Odds: Michigan vs. South Carolina Betting Pick, Analysis

The South Carolina Gamecocks are 4-1 straight up and 4-0-1 against the spread over their last five bowl games. The Michigan Wolverines, on the other hand, are just 3-8 SU and 3-6-2 ATS over their last 11 bowls. A second-place team from the SEC meets a fourth-place team from the Big Ten when South Carolina meets Michigan in the Outback Bowl on New Year's Day in Tampa, Florida.

College football point spread: The Wolverines opened as 7.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.8-21.8 Wolverines (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

The Wolverines started 4-0 this season, then lost two of three games against two good teams in Michigan State and Penn State. Michigan then won three straight, but finished with consecutive defeats against the two Big Ten Championship Game participants, Wisconsin and Ohio State.

Nonetheless, the Wolverines are playing in a bowl for the third straight season.

Michigan actually led the Badgers in Madison 10-7 well into the third quarter but lost its starting quarterback and gave up the final 17 points of the game to lose 24-10. Just after that the Wolverines led the Buckeyes 14-0 in the second quarter and 20-14 deep in the third, but gave up the last 17 points to lose 31-20.

Due to injuries and inefficiency, Michigan has started three quarterbacks this season. But Brandon Peters, who did the best job of the three before getting hurt against Wisconsin, is expected to return for this bowl.

Why the South Carolina Gamecocks can cover the spread

The Gamecocks started 6-2 this season, with opening victories over North Carolina State and Missouri. South Carolina then dropped a game to one College Football Playoff qualifier, Georgia, won two straight, then finished its regular season with a loss to another CFP contestant, Clemson.

So the Gamecocks are back in a bowl for the second straight season.

South Carolina came out flat in that Palmetto Bowl loss to the rival Tigers, but Clemson might be the best team in the country. Also, the Gamecocks outgained four of their last seven opponents, and outrushed five of their last seven foes. They're also 4-2-2 ATS their last eight times out.

Smart pick

Michigan owns advantages in the running game and on defense, which should be enough to win this game and cover this spread. So despite the quarterback situation, the smart money here still bets the Wolverines.

College football betting trends

South Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.

The total has gone under in South Carolina's last three games as an underdog.

Michigan is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after an ATS win.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.