NFL Predictions Week 17: Picks and Projections for Top Upsets on the Schedule

The NFL Week 17 schedule is something of a fantasy land for would-be bettors who love the thrill ride of rolling with underdogs. 

On paper, bad teams are packing it up and getting the season over with in the cold around the holidays, hence so many large spreads out of Las Vegas. But it isn't usually so simple, as the on-paper outlook doesn't do these sorts of matchups justice. 

It might be the final game of the year for most teams around the league, but it also means some teams view Week 17 as a Super Bowl of sorts—a chance to spoil the party for a playoff-bound team, especially if said opponent is a heated divisional rival.

We saw a few instances of this already in Week 16, with more sure to come. Here's the full schedule below, with expanded thoughts on a few key upsets to watch. 

NFL Week 17 Matchups, Odds

Chicago at Minnesota (-12.5) | O/U 39.5

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14.5) | O/U

Dallas (-3) at Philadelphia | O/U

Green Bay at Detroit (-7.5)  | O/U 43

Houston at Indianapolis (E) | O/U 41

N.Y. Jets at New England (-16.5)  | O/U

Washington (-3.5) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 38

Arizona at Seattle (-8)  | O/U 39

Buffalo (-3) at Miami | O/U 42.5

Carolina at Atlanta (-3.5)  | O/U 46.5

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-10) | O/U 40.5

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-6)  | O/U

Kansas City at Denver (-3)  | O/U 39

New Orleans (-7.5) at Tampa Bay | O/U 50.5

Oakland at L.A. Chargers (-7)  | O/U

San Francisco at L.A. Rams (-6.5)  | O/U 44

Chicago at Minnesota (-12.5)

This one isn't as unlikely as it seems.  

The Chicago Bears are a bad team this year thanks to some iffy decisions, no doubt. Most likely argued before the season starting Mike Glennon over Mitchell Trubisky was a bad approach—and even before that, whiffing on re-signing someone like Alshon Jeffery fell under the same umbrella. 

But these Bears have had fight all year, losing six games by eight or fewer points. One of those came in a Week 5 game against these Minnesota Vikings, a 20-17 loss while Chicago's defense held Case Keenum to 140 yards and a touchdown. 

Which isn't to suggest the Vikings are struggling right now. They moved past the Green Bay Packers on the road in Week 16, 16-0, and are 12-3 for good reason. Week 17 offers them something to play for as well because, though it's a longshot, they could lose a grip on a top seed in the NFC playoffs. 

But these NFC North rivals have a history of playing close games, and they even split the season series a year ago despite Chicago's miserable team. 

The Bears are similarly built with Jordan Howard sitting on 1,113 yards and nine touchdowns and a defense ranked in the top 10 by only permitting 19.8 points per game. The execution hasn't always been there, but the ball-control offense with an improving quarterback in Trusbisky who extends plays with his legs (246 yards and two touchdowns on 40 attempts) provides a versatile wrinkle the Vikings haven't usually seen from the Bears. 

A young team on the upswing of a rebuild with new energy around a potential franchise passer, look for the Bears to steal this one on a late drive as the Bears take their Super Bowl on the road while inflicting some damage on a rival. 

Prediction: Bears 24, Vikings 21

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-10) 

Quietly, the Cincinnati Bengals are one of the most dangerous non-playoff teams on the Week 17 schedule. 

It's no secret the Bengals are a ridiculously talented team with what looks like a coaching issue, hence losses of 33-7 and 34-7 margins before a Week 16 win. 

That Week 16 win, though, showcased the talent of the Bengals when things roll the right way. A 26-17 win over the Detroit Lions to eliminate a team from postseason contention while Giovani Bernard rushed 23 times for 116 yards and a touchdown didn't exactly fall under the "expected" umbrella. 

These Baltimore Ravens haven't exactly looked hot lately, either, as beating the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts doesn't make for a momentum-building stretch. Now the team is worried the NFL shifting Sunday's game to a late-afternoon slot will have a negative impact on already-poor fan attendance. 

"I don't think the NFL did us any favors by moving it back," Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said, according to ESPN's Jamison Hensley. "But they don't care about us. So, we just have to care about ourselves."

The Ravens simply aren't a thrilling team on paper, though, with a running game hardly averaging four yards per carry and quarterback Joe Flacco sitting on 16 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. The defense still allows less than 20 points per game, but the Ravens have only beat one team with a winning record this year, and it's those Lions who continue to flirt with a .500 mark. 

Like the NFC North matchup mentioned above, the Bengals and Ravens are built oddly similar, and it's clear the Bengals aren't simply rolling over and playing dead despite an upcoming offseason of what looks like major change. Baltimore doesn't have anyone capable of running with A.J. Green, and a surging defense with Vontaze Burfict back on the field shouldn't have a problem slowing Flacco. 

Prediction: Bengals 23, Ravens 17 

Kansas City at Denver (-3)

Like the Bengals, the Kansas City Chiefs are one of the more dangerous teams left on the schedule. 

These Chiefs have clinched the division and might not show up 100 percent for a game against the Denver Broncos, but pegging them as underdogs is an interesting angle. 

After all, the Chiefs straight up own this rivalry as of late. Nicki Jhabvala of the Denver Post provided quite the telling stat: 

Back in Week 8, the Chiefs forced five Denver turnovers while picking off Trevor Siemian three times in a 29-19 win. The task shouldn't be too difficult for the unit in Week 17, where the 5-10 Broncos will trot out Paxton Lynch for the fourth start of his career, giving him more reps on a season in which he's attempted 14 passes and thrown an interception. 

The Kansas City offense shouldn't have too many problems, either. A usually stout Denver defense is even faltering and sits ranked 22nd at 23.7 points allowed per game. Over the past month, the unit has coughed up 35 points to a 6-9 Miami team and 27 to 7-8 Washington, both losses. 

As always, Kansas City looks efficient under the guidance of Alex Smith, he of 26 touchdowns against five interceptions while getting 1,292 yards, seven touchdowns and a 4.8 per-carry average from rookie back Kareem Hunt. 

Maybe the Chiefs don't force five turnovers this time, but they're playing some of their best ball on the season at the right time, making a potential Denver win an upset candidate for those playing the lines—bettors need to grab this one before the angle evaporates. 

Prediction: Chiefs 28, Broncos 20 

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.