Riskiest Rumored Offseason Moves That Could Blow Up in MLB Teams' Faces
Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
That's a truism in life and baseball, and it's something all 30 MLB clubs face each offseason as they try to improve their rosters and/or restock their farm systems.
Inevitably, some trades and signings don't work out. High risk means the possibility of a hefty reward but also the danger of an embarrassing flameout.
Let's take a look at six big offseason risks, all based on credible rumors, that could blow up in teams' faces if they opt to pull the trigger—or, in one case, if they don't.
San Francisco Giants Sign LF/RF Jay Bruce
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The San Francisco Giants eschewed a rebuild after a 98-loss 2017 season and are instead trying to retool the roster and get back into the National League playoff picture.
They initiated that effort by acquiring third baseman Evan Longoria from the Tampa Bay Rays for a package headlined by infield prospect Christian Arroyo.
There's still work to be done to improve an offense that ranked last in the game in home runs and OPS.
Hence the persistent chatter linking the Giants to outfielder Jay Bruce, who slugged 36 homers between the New York Mets and Cleveland Indians last season. For perspective, 11 San Francisco outfielders combined to hit 39 home runs last season.
On Dec. 20, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle stoked the Bruce rumors by noting that the slugger would be "thrilled" to end up in orange and black.
It feels like a fit, but there are red flags aplenty.
Bruce, who turns 31 in April, will surely command a significant commitment in years and dollars. The Giants currently have the most committed payroll for every season from 2018 through 2021, per Spotrac. Their even-year championship core is aging. They just added a significant chunk of the $81 million Longoria, 32, is owed through 2023.
Factor in San Francisco's fallow farm system, which was further depleted by the Longoria deal, and you're looking at a franchise on the brink of implosion.
Bruce might make them better in 2018, but they'd need a lot of things to break right to catch up to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies in the NL West. Adding another expensive player on the wrong side of 30 would only exacerbate their long-term woes.
San Diego Padres Sign 1B Eric Hosmer
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Eric Hosmer had a dandy contract year in 2017, as he set career highs in hits (192), average (.318) and OPS (.882). Now, he's angling for a nine-figure contract with the backing of superagent Scott Boras.
The Boston Red Sox looked like a possible fit before they re-signed Mitch Moreland. The Philadelphia Phillies snapped up Carlos Santana, another top first-base target.
Where does that leave Hosmer? Possibly in San Diego.
The Padres have shown notable interest, though their decision-makers have a "deep split of opinion" on a Hosmer signing, per ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
That's not surprising. Despite his solid 2017 numbers and reputation as a clubhouse leader, Hosmer is 28 years old and in the midst of his prime. That could be a poor fit for a Friars team years away from relevance, as Olney noted:
"Hosmer would be the leader of a group of developing young players in 2018 and 2019, but with enormous holes in the rotation, the Padres don’t appear close to contending with the Dodgers in the immediate future. If San Diego gave Hosmer a big-money deal ... then Hosmer might start to decline at about the time the team started to turn the corner."
Also, consider this: Hosmer had never hit as many as 20 home runs in his five full MLB campaigns prior to 2015. Petco Park was the second-least-friendly home run yard in baseball last season, per ESPN's Park Factors statistic. For a $100-plus million corner infielder, that's some unsettling math.
Philadelphia Phillies Sign RHP Jake Arrieta
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Here's a fact: Jake Arrieta won the NL Cy Young Award in 2015.
Here's another fact: Arrieta is a free agent, and someone is going to hand him a large, lucrative contract.
Here's one more fact: That will be a big, big risk.
Arrieta's star has dimmed since his Cy Young apex. His ERA has climbed and his velocity has dipped in each of the two subsequent seasons, and he threw just 168.1 innings in 2017, his lowest total since 2014.
He rebounded in the second half, lowering his ERA from 4.35 before the All-Star break to 2.28 after. And he boasted a 0.84 ERA with 13 strikeouts in 10.1 innings in two postseason starts for the Chicago Cubs.
There are reasons to don rose-hued glasses, and reasons for a contender to gamble on Arrieta rediscovering his 2015 form. He'll turn 32 in March, so the odds of him suddenly regaining his lost fastball zip are slim, but he's got the stuff and experience to be an above-average rotation piece.
The key word up there was "contender," which makes the Philadelphia Phillies a head-scratching match.
The Phils lost 96 games last season. They've got enough young talent to hope for the future, and the Santana signing signals they want to accelerate the rebuild. They've got the third-fewest dollars committed for 2018, per Spotrac. Technically, they could afford another glitzy free-agent splash.
Lo and behold, the Phillies "are considering" Arrieta, per FanRag Sports' Jon Heyman.
Realistically, however, Philadelphia isn't going to contend for anything for a couple of years. At that point, you're looking at Arrieta entering his mid-30s and quite possibly devolving into an overpaid, subpar payroll drag.
Phillies fans have heard that unpleasant story before.
Boston Red Sox Sign LF/RF J.D. Martinez
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The Red Sox need to add thump after finishing last in the American League in home runs.
J.D. Martinez possesses thump, as the 45 home runs he hit in 2017 prove.
Not surprisingly, the Red Sox have been linked to Martinez, including by CBS Sports' Dayn Perry. Martinez has a link to Boston executive Dave Dombrowski from their time together with the Detroit Tigers, adding fuel to the hot-stove fire.
The first question is where Martinez would play. The Red Sox are currently stocked in the outfield with Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts from left to right.
Martinez could slot in at designated hitter, but that's about the only place they can stash Hanley Ramirez, who will make more than $22 million next season.
The Sox could settle that problem with a trade of an outfielder, or by eating Ramirez's contract the way they did with Pablo Sandoval's.
That still leaves the question of whether Martinez will be worth the massive money he's sure to command. Like Hosmer, he's a Boras client coming off a gaudy contract year. There will be no discounts.
Martinez turned 30 in August; he's not over the hill. But the 45 homers he cracked in '17 were easily his highest MLB total. His next-best mark came in 2015, when he hit 38. Other than that, he's never hit 25.
Martinez would add thump for Boston. He also looks like a prime overpay candidate. And, at $20 million-plus per season, he'd hinder the team's ability to spend big on the vaunted 2018-19 free-agent class and keep pace with the archrival New York Yankees.
New York Yankees Trade for RHP Gerrit Cole
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Speaking of the Yankees, they're considering a high-risk move of their own.
After diving into the trade market to acquire masher Giancarlo Stanton from the Miami Marlins, the Yanks are reportedly weighing a deal for Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Gerrit Cole.
The cost would be high. The Pirates might be seeking both touted, young Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier and a big-league-ready arm such as right-hander Chance Adams, per the New York Post's George A. King III.
Cole was an All-Star and top-five NL Cy Young Award finisher in 2015, but he was limited by injury in 2016 and posted a 4.26 ERA last year. New York is shifting into win-now mode, but is Cole worth the outlay of youthful potential the Bucs are seeking?
Frazier is blocked in the outfield with the addition of Stanton. He could be used as a trade chip in another deal this winter, however, or stashed until the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline when the Yanks may have a clearer idea of their needs. Adams, meanwhile, is the Yankees' top pitching prospect, per MLB.com.
New York could use another starting pitcher, but with veteran CC Sabathia back in the fold to join Luis Severino, Sonny Gray and Masahiro Tanaka, the need isn't acute.
Baltimore Orioles Don't Trade 3B Manny Machado
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For much of the winter, rumors have swirled around Baltimore Orioles infielder Manny Machado. The 25-year-old is an excellent defender capable of manning third base or shortstop and has made three All-Star teams to pair with three top-10 AL MVP finishes.
He's also entering the final year of his contract with the O's, meaning he'd be a one-year rental before hitting free agency and netting a gargantuan deal from someone.
That puts Baltimore in a tricky position. On one hand, it can and should demand a rich return for the franchise player. On the other, if the Orioles hold out for too much, they could end up losing him after the 2018 season and getting nothing but a compensatory draft pick.
On Dec. 21, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that "unless someone drastically changes their offer, [Machado] is staying put for now."
Let's say the Orioles keep Machado and opt to make one more postseason run with him in the fold. They'd need to improve a starting rotation that finished last in baseball with a 5.70 ERA and plug the hole in the bullpen created by closer Zach Britton's ruptured Achillies. Even then, they'd be hard-pressed to catch the Yankees and Red Sox in the top-heavy AL East.
The best answer is for Baltimore to build a time machine and trade Machado last winter, when the return would have been much greater. Failing that, they could be forced to accept a lesser offer or swallow a bitter dose of regret.
All statistics and contract information courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.
