Week 17 NFL Picks: Season-Finale Betting Odds, Vegas Spreads and Projections

The NFL's goodbye tour occurs on a single day of action with no late-game kickoff and plenty of gigantic lines from oddsmakers. 

Those in charge of spreads see plenty of teams around the league throwing up the white flag in the face of games in the bitter cold against better opposition. And normally this would be a great time for those who like to pick upsets—but the NFL readjusted the schedule, so every game has meaning along the late kickoffs. 

Most playoff-hopeful teams have something to play for, leaving them less susceptible to upsets than usual. It doesn't make for a boring week of football by any means, but it simply lessens the chances of a Cinderella story. 

The real Cinderella stories this year occurred over the full course of the season, hence a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars heading for the postseason. Here's the continuation of those stories, as projected based on updated lines. 

NFL Week 17 Matchups, Odds

Chicago at Minnesota (-12.5) | O/U 39.5

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14.5) | O/U

Dallas at Philadelphia (n/a) | O/U

Green Bay at Detroit (-7.5)  | O/U 43

Houston at Indianapolis (E) | O/U 41

N.Y. Jets at New England (-16.5)  | O/U

Washington (-3.5) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 38

Arizona at Seattle (-8)  | O/U 39

Buffalo (-3) at Miami | O/U 42.5

Carolina at Atlanta (-3.5)  | O/U 46.5

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-10) | O/U 40.5

Jacksonville at Tennessee (n/a)  | O/U

Kansas City at Denver (-3)  | O/U 39

New Orleans (-7.5) at Tampa Bay | O/U 50.5

Oakland at L.A. Chargers (-7)  | O/U

San Francisco at L.A. Rams (-6.5)  | O/U 44

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14.5)

This is one of those games where a huge line shouldn't scare bettors too much.

Yes, this is the Cleveland Browns' final chance to avoid 0-16—and yes, these two played to a 21-18 finish in Week 1 favoring the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

But Week 1 feels like years ago. 

These Steelers have a single loss since Week 5, a three-point defeat at the hands of New England. The Browns haven't looked competitive at all since mid-October, with the exception coming against a Green Bay Packers team missing Aaron Rodgers. 

The key here is focus, something the Steelers won't lack. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler helped explain what the Steelers have at stake: 

While the Steelers won't have Antonio Brown, it didn't matter much in Week 16 as they blew past the Houston Texans 34-6. JuJu Smith-Schuster caught six passes for 75 yards and a score, and Martavis Bryant grabbed three for 60. 

Pittsburgh can still spread out the Browns and pick apart the defense while pulling away. The Browns simply don't have the firepower to match, either.

Even with Josh Gordon back in the fold, DeShone Kizer has thrown four interceptions with no touchdowns over his past two outings, and the Browns have lost twice on the bounce by a combined score of 47-13. 

Prediction: Steelers 28, Browns 10

N.Y. Jets at New England (-16.5)

The problem for the Steelers? Those New England Patriots have everything to play for against a bad team in Week 17 as well. 

It's also quite the terrible development for the New York Jets. 

The Jets have thrown in the towel on the season, shifting to Bryce Petty under center due to injuries and losing three in a row by a combined margin of 68-36. They don't have much to play for, whereas Tom Brady and Co. likely want to control their own destiny. 

Ryan Hannable of WEEI provided the context: 

The Patriots are here because they have lost all of one game since Week 4. They beat Pittsburgh in Week 15, then turned around and whipped the Buffalo Bills 37-16 as Brady tossed a pair of scores and his ground game added two more. 

More than anything, though, the real divide here is the Jets. In New York back in Week 6, Josh McCown only managed a pair of touchdowns and interceptions in a 24-17 loss to these Patriots. In relief over the past three weeks, Petty hasn't hit the 200-yard mark and has one touchdown against three interceptions. 

A Brady-Petty showdown will go about as expected. The Jets don't have anyone who can line up with Rob Gronkowski, who scored twice in the last matchup, nor does the outlook on the road look good overall. In a footrace for the AFC's top seed, look for the Patriots to match the Steelers by also covering. 

Prediction: Patriots 34, Jets 10

New Orleans (-7.5) at Tampa Bay

Here's a line that simply feels like it should be bigger.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost five games in a row, and the only wins over the stretch preventing it from being 12 in a row came against bad Miami Dolphins and Jets teams. One of those losses on the march to 4-11 included a 30-10 embarrassment at the hands of the New Orleans Saints in Week 9, where Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 68 yards. 

Jameis Winston back in the fold or not, it's hard to imagine the Buccaneers outgunning a player like Drew Brees given his performances as of late: 

Brees has it easier than usual this year thanks to a strong showing from his running game and defense. Over the past four games, three of them wins, New Orleans has only permitted north of 20 points once while the running game keeps cruising.

Said running game features Mark Ingram and his 1,089 yards and 12 scores, as well as breakout rookie Alvin Kamara and his 684 yards and seven scores. 

Sometimes familiarity between rivals creates interesting upset scenarios at the end of a season. But this simply isn't the case here, as the Buccaneers have quietly been one of the worst teams in football while tallying the four wins all against teams with losing records.

Brees, still an elite player in his own right, has too much to play for on one of the most complete teams he's arguably ever had, to let this one slip away. 

Prediction: Saints 30, Buccaneers 14 

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.