College Football Championship 2018: Semifinals Odds and Playoff Predictions
There are a ludicrous amount of bowl games happening between now and New Year's Day across the country, but the two games that most college football fans are fixated on are the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl.
In other words, the College Football Playoff.
The time for whining is over for teams like UCF and Ohio State that did not get into the CFP. Enough time has passed since Selection Sunday, when No. 1 Clemson was selected to play No. 4 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl while No. 2 Oklahoma was scheduled to play No. 3 Georgia in the Rose Bowl.
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At this time of year, there are no easy games for any team. But the stage doesn't get much bigger than this in college football. As the New Year's Day bowls inch nearer and nearer, let's breakdown this year's College Football Playoff matchups.
College Football Playoff Schedule
Rose Bowl: No. 3 Georgia (-1.5) vs. No. 2 Oklahoma, Jan. 1 at 5 p.m. ET
Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Alabama (-2.5) vs. No. 1 Clemson, Jan. 1 at 8:45 p.m. ET
Odds are according to OddsShark.
Predictions
Rose Bowl
This season's Rose Bowl, featuring the Georgia Bulldogs and Oklahoma Sooners, has gone back and forth in the world of gambling.
The Sooners opened up as 1.5-point favorites, but just a little over a week before the game, the Bulldogs became 1.5-point favorites to defeat Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield and his Sooners to advance to the National Championship.
On paper, it seems clear what both teams must do to succeed. For Oklahoma, the offense must flow through Mayfield—whether it's throwing or running the ball. Keeping Mayfield upright with time in the pocket will be crucial, as Georgia's defense will be hell-bent on putting pressure on Mayfield to move outside the pocket and make plays.
The inevitable matchup between Mayfield and defensive standout Roquan Smith will be must-see TV, but Georgia is more than just a defensive football team.
With arguably the best two-headed rushing attack in all of college football, the Bulldogs will look to give the Sooners defense a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, who combined to rush for 2,123 yards and 26 touchdowns during the regular season.
But don't sleep on freshman quarterback Jake Fromm. He's thrown for 2,172 yards and 21 touchdowns.
Oklahoma relies too heavily on Mayfield to make something out of nothing on offense, which will backfire in a big way against a well-coached Georgia defense under the tutelage of a defensive mastermind, head coach Kirby Smart.
Don't be surprised to see Mayfield get hit early and often in this one as the Bulldogs run away from the Sooners with a heavy dosage of ground-and-pound football.
Prediction: Georgia 35-17 Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl
The Crimson Tide got the benefit of the doubt from the CFP committee. Alabama's reward? A date with No. 1 Clemson.
All season long, Alabama looked unbeatable. The Crimson Tide had a fairly weak schedule going into SEC play, but they looked so strong in each of their games, often subbing in their second- and third-string players such as backup quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
But Alabama ran into a buzz saw in the form of the Auburn Tigers in the Iron Bowl, which knocked them out of the SEC Championship Game. Despite not winning the SEC championship, the Crimson Tide got into the CFP and will take on the Clemson Tigers, who defeated Alabama in last year's National Championship.
While Deshaun Watson won't be suiting up for Clemson this time around, Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts will be back and looking for revenge. But in Hurts' way is a Clemson defense that ranks first in team sacks (44) and boasts defensive studs such as Dexter Lawrence, Christian Wilkins and Clelin Ferrell.
Clemson's ability to disrupt Hurts and Alabama's rushing attack will be the key to stopping the Crimson Tide. Once Clemson takes care of business defensively, its offense must come to life.
Mike Williams and Wayne Gallman are also gone from last year's Clemson offense, but the Tigers haven't taken as big of a step back this season as one would have thought. Clemson is still ranked No. 17 in the country in total offense and averages 35.4 points per game.
Alabama will come out trying to impose its will in the running game to control the clock and wear down the Tigers defense front. The Crimson Tide may have some early success on the ground, but Clemson will soon load the box and force Hurts to pass the ball downfield, where he will struggle to find his receivers.
Unless Alabama elects to put Tagovailoa in during passing situations, Clemson shouldn't have much trouble committing to the run on defense, limiting Alabama's ability to make explosive plays.
Clemson will take over in the third quarter and run Alabama out of the building. The Crimson Tide are 2.5-point favorites but will lose on New Year's Day.
Prediction: Clemson 31-14 Alabama
All stats courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
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