Peach Bowl Odds: UCF vs. Auburn Betting Pick, Analysis

Last bowl season Power 5 teams won four of five matchups against Group of 5 teams, but thanks in part to some inflated spreads only covered two of those games. Over the last three bowl seasons, Power 5 teams are only 13-7 SU and 9-11 ATS versus the Group of 5.

In the most interesting such matchup of this bowl season, the unbeaten Central Florida Knights challenge the Auburn Tigers in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Day in Atlanta.

College football point spread: The Tigers opened as eight-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 43.1-40.4 Tigers (College football picks for every game)

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Why the UCF Knights can cover the spread

The Knights stand as the lone surviving undefeated FBS team in the land this season, following their wild 62-55 double-overtime victory over Memphis in the AAC championship game. UCF led the Tigers 10-0 early, trailed 31-24 at the half, led 48-34 in the fourth quarter but allowed Memphis to force OT with two late scores. The Knights eventually won the game with an Otis Anderson touchdown run and a subsequent interception.

Central Florida racked up a ridiculous 726 yards of total offense, 232 on the ground and 494 through the air, which helped it overcome four turnovers.

On the season, the Knights outgained nine of their 12 opponents, and hit the 40-point mark nine times. Central Florida is playing its last game under coach Scott Frost, who's leaving to take over at his alma mater, Nebraska. This team would probably love to send him off on a high note.

Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers started 5-1 this season, the only loss in that span coming against Clemson. Auburn then blew a game against LSU but used victories over Georgia and Alabama to win the SEC West and get within one win of the CFP itself. Unfortunately, the Tigers came out flat the week after their big Iron Bowl victory and lost to those same Bulldogs 28-7 in the SEC championship game.

Auburn only trailed Georgia in that conference title tilt 10-7 late into the third quarter but gave up the last 18 points of the game. So the Tigers went 2-2 both SU and ATS in four games this season versus teams that made the College Football Playoff.

On the season Auburn outgained and outrushed 10 of its 13 opponents.

Smart pick

Motivation becomes a factor in bowl matchups like this. Auburn reached the brink of the College Football Playoff, only to be turned away. Central Florida, meanwhile, would love to cap a perfect season with an upset of a big-time opponent. The smart money here takes the points with the Knights.

College football betting trends

Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games on a Monday.

The total has gone over in seven of Auburn's last 10 games.

Central Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.