Fiesta Bowl Odds: Washington vs. Penn State Betting Pick, Analysis

Over the last two bowl seasons, the Big Ten is 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in bowl matchups versus the Pac-12. Four games this bowl season pit the Big Ten against the Pac-12, including the Fiesta Bowl where the Penn State Nittany Lions will battle the Washington Huskies on Saturday, December 30.

College football point spread: The Nittany Lions opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 34.7-33.0 Huskies (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Washington Huskies can cover the spread

The Huskies finished their regular season with consecutive victories, including a 41-14 romp over rival Washington State in the Apple Cup. So at 10-2 Washington pushed its season wins over/under of 10.

The Huskies drove their opening possession of the game against the Cougars 75 yards to a touchdown, led 24-0 at the half and 34-0 before allowing WSU to hit the board early in the fourth quarter, on their way toward an easy cover as 10-point favorites.

On the night, Washington racked up 328 yards on the ground and won the turnover battle 4-0, basically resulting in a plus-14 point differential. So the Huskies outgained seven of their nine Pac-12 opponents this season and outrushed eight of them.

Why the Penn State Nittany Lions can cover the spread

The Lions finished their regular season with three straight victories, including a 66-3 mugging of Maryland in the finale. So at 10-2 Penn State sneaked over its wins total of 9.5.

The Lions drove their opening possession of the game against the Terrapins 91 yards to a touchdown, led 31-0 at the half and 52-0 in the third quarter, on their way toward an easy cover as 24-point favorites.

For the game, Penn State outgained Maryland 534-303, outrushed the Terps 286-124 and won time of possession by a 38-22 split. So the Lions outgained seven of their nine Big Ten opponents this season and outrushed five of them.

Smart pick

This should be one of the most entertaining bowl games this season, regardless of whether one bets it or not. Both teams are capable on both sides of the ball, but while Penn State might own an edge on offense, Washington probably owns an edge on defense. And, in matchups like this, the better defense is usually the better bet. The smart money here rides the Huskies.

College football betting trends

Penn State is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 games.

The total has gone over in five of Penn State's last six games.

Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games after a win.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.