Holiday Bowl Odds: Michigan State vs. Washington State Betting Pick, Analysis

The Michigan State Spartans are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread over their last five bowl games. The Washington State Cougars are 1-2 both SU and ATS in their three most recent bowls. In a near-typical Big Ten/Pac-12 matchup Michigan State meets Washington State in the Holiday Bowl on Thursday, December 28, in San Diego.

College football point spread: The Cougars opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.6-24.2 Cougars (College football picks on every game).

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Why the Michigan State Spartans can cover the spread

The Spartans, somewhat surprisingly, started 6-1 this season, with wins over Iowa and at Michigan, the only loss coming against Notre Dame. Michigan State then lost two of three, including an overtime thriller at Northwestern, but finished with consecutive victories and easily played over its season win over/under of 6.5.

So the Spartans are back in a bowl after having a nine-year bowl streak snapped last year.

MSU put a hurting on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in that season finale, winning scoreboard 40-7, yardage 431-112, time of possession 48-12 and covering as 14-point favorites.

So Michigan State outgained eight of 10 Power 5 opponents this season and outrushed seven of them.

Why the Washington State Cougars can cover the spread

The Cougars started 6-0 this season, with wins over Boise State, USC and Oregon. WSU then lost two of three, but victories over Stanford and Utah got it within one shot of the Pac-12 championship game. Unfortunately, the Cougars fell to rival Washington in the Apple Cup 41-14.

Nonetheless, Washington State played over its season over/under of 7.5 and is bowling for the third straight season.

The Cougars rank 31st in the country in total offense and a pleasantly surprising 14th in total defense, holding opponents to almost 100 yards fewer per game than they did last year. They also outgained seven of their 10 Power 5 (plus Boise State) foes this season.

Smart pick

Washington State once again reached the edge of something big this season but blew its chance. One wonders what the Cougars' mindset is going into this game. On the other side of this matchup, while the Holiday Bowl is a nice gig, Michigan State should feel slighted, after Michigan got the New Year's Day nod instead. The smart money here sides with the Spartans.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in Washington State's last nine games after a loss.

Washington State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.

Michigan State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games against the Pac-12.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.