Week 16 NFL Picks: Over/Under Projections, Odds Advice and Line Spreads

Sometimes, we can look at every statistic connected to a certain game and still come nowhere close to predicting any team or individual result.

Case in point is the Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers game from December 10. Entering the contest, Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart had only rushed for 3.24 yards per carry and three touchdowns all season, per Pro Football Reference. It didn't seem like Stewart would do well, but that could be said for many offensive players in this one as the over/under on the game was listed at just 40.5 points.

Of course, the former Oregon Duck proceeded to rip off 103 yards and three touchdowns against a Vikings team that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game all year. The final score was 31-24 Panthers in a matchup that featured a surprising amount of good offensive football.

On the flip side, sometimes, we can look at the statistics but feel in our gut that the game will go much differently than anticipated. We'll focus on that aspect a bit here as we make predictions on the three best bets for Week 16 of the NFL season.

All over/under totals and spreads are via OddsShark.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5, 41.5 O/U)

Pick: Ravens 24, Colts 10

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (No Line)

Pick: Vikings 27, Packers 24

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-6.5, 38.5 O/U)

Pick: Bears 20, Browns 17

Detroit Lions (-5, 43 O/U) at Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Lions 31, Bengals 10

Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 48 O/U) at Tennessee Titans

Pick: Rams 31, Titans 17

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 43.5 O/U)

Pick: Chiefs 31, Dolphins 10

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-12.5, 47 O/U)

Pick: Patriots 31, Bills 17

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 52.5 O/U)

Pick: Saints 31, Falcons 24

Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 42.5 O/U) at New York Jets

Pick: Chargers 28, Jets 14

Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 41 O/U)

Pick: Redskins 20, Broncos 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-9, 46.5 O/U)

Pick: Panthers 35, Buccaneers 10

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 42.5 O/U) at San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Jaguars 24, 49ers 16

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 47 O/U)

Pick: Cowboys 31, Seahawks 14

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (-4, 39.5 O/U)

Pick: Cardinals 24, Giants 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 44 O/U) at Houston Texans

Pick: Steelers 24, Texans 10

Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 47 O/U)

Pick: Eagles 31, Raiders 20

Best Bets

Dallas Cowboys (-5) over Seattle Seahawks

I've gone back and forth on this game for a bit and thought this would be a shootout at first.

However, the Dallas Cowboys are hungry and motivated after winning their past three games without suspended star running back Ezekiel Elliott, while the Seattle Seahawks naturally have to be downtrodden after losing key defensive backs Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman to season-ending injuries earlier this year—in addition to falling to the Los Angeles Rams 42-7 at home last Sunday.

Now Elliott is back from his six-game suspension and might break off a big game. Also, Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee transforms the Dallas defense when he steps foot on the field. Not counting the egg Dallas laid against Denver in Week 2 (a 42-17 loss), these are the point totals for the opposing teams in the games Lee has played fully: 3, 17, 10, 19, 17, 10, 17.

Barring any setback this week, the former Penn State star should suit up for the Seahawks game and could lead his team to another strong defensive performance yet again. Of course, MVP candidate Russell Wilson is calling signals for the Seahawks, but it's hard to bet in favor of a team that just lost by five touchdowns at home.

Look for Dallas to win this one going away.

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) over Chicago Bears

Yes, the Cleveland Browns are 0-14, but they must know that their Week 16 game against the Chicago Bears is by far their best chance to eliminate the goose egg before the end of the season. A Week 17 contest with the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field looms, and on paper, the Browns should be close to two-touchdown underdogs in that one.

Therefore, one has to wonder if the Browns come out with a bit more fire to try to avoid being just the second 0-16 NFL team in league history (the other being the 2008 Detroit Lions).

Furthermore, a breakout performance from wideout Josh Gordon feels like it's on the horizon. He accrued 11 targets in his first game back from a three-year hiatus from the NFL against the Chargers, caught a touchdown pass against the Packers the following week and saw 11 more targets last Sunday versus the Baltimore Ravens.

A matchup with the Chicago Bears, who allow 65.5 percent of passes to be completed against them (seventh-worst mark in the NFL), may be in Gordon's favor.

Playing in Soldier Field hasn't proven to be easy for any team this year (the Bears have only allowed more than 23 points there just once in 2017), but expect Gordon and the Browns to fight hard and eventually cover.

Detroit Lions (-5) over Cincinnati Bengals

The Detroit Lions are hungry and motivated to return to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and need to win each of their last games (and hope the Atlanta Falcons lose their last two) in order to do so.

Although that seems like a lot on paper, three of the four individual matchups all fall in the Lions' favor. Detroit is a five-point favorite against the Cincinnati Bengals and should be favored against the Packers at home on New Year's Eve.

Atlanta is a 5.5-point underdog at the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. They should be the favorite against the Carolina Panthers at home on New Year's Eve, but the 10-4 Panthers already beat the Falcons 20-17 this year and should present a stiff test.

Ultimately, the Lions have plenty of motivation for this game, as a path to the playoffs is at least plausible.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last two games by a combined score of 67-14 and are playing out the string at five wins and nine losses.

More specifically, they lost 33-7 at home to the 4-10 Chicago Bears and were getting blown out 34-0 at the Minnesota Vikings before the home team reeled it in and put in some backups.

Essentially, this is a case where one team that has everything to play for is facing a team that is already playing out the string. The edge goes to the Lions in a contest that may be over by halftime.