Cactus Bowl Odds: Kansas State vs. UCLA Betting Pick, Analysis

Underdogs aren't just 4-1 against the spread over the last five Cactus Bowl matchups, they've won three of those games outright. The UCLA Bruins will play the underdog role when they meet the Kansas State Wildcats in a Cactus Bowl matchup Tuesday, December 26 at Chase Field in Phoenix.

College football point spread: The Wildcats opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 33.0-25.4 Wildcats (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Kansas State Wildcats can cover the spread

The Wildcats only sat at 3-4 through mid-October but won four of their last five games, including back-to-back victories over a pair of pretty good teams in Oklahoma State and Iowa State to end the season. So Kansas State is making its eighth straight bowl appearance.

The Wildcats, as 19-point underdogs, beat the Cowboys in Stillwater 45-40, and that game wasn't really as close as that final score might indicate considering Kansas State led 42-13 in the third quarter. And just after that the Wildcats defeated the Cyclones 20-19 on a touchdown on the final play of the game.

Kansas State lost its top two quarterbacks to injury this season, but it's 2-1 in three games started by freshman Skylar Thompson.

Why the UCLA Bruins can cover the spread

The Bruins only sat at 4-5 into the home stretch but won two of their last three games, including a 30-27 decision over Cal in the finale, to become bowl eligible after missing out last year. UCLA led the Golden Bears early 17-6, let the Bears tie the game at 27-27 late but drove 55 yards to a game-winning field goal with four seconds left.

On the night, the Bruins racked up 462 yards of offense, as quarterbacks Josh Rosen and Devon Modster combined to hit on 27 of 36 throws for 393 yards and two touchdowns.

Rosen left that game against Cal at halftime following a hard hit, but he is expected to play in this bowl.

UCLA is playing this Cactus Bowl under an interim coach following the firing of Jim Mora, but offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch already led the team to that victory over Cal.

Smart pick

UCLA will throw the ball against a porous Kansas State pass defense, but the Wildcats will run the ball against a weak Bruins run defense. And in cases like this, the smarter choice is usually the better run game. Take Kansas State.

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in 11 of UCLA's last 15 games against the Big 12.

UCLA is 2-9 SU and ATS in its last 11 games after a win.

Kansas State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against the Pac-12.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.