Alamo Bowl Odds: Stanford vs. TCU Betting Pick, Analysis

The TCU Horned Frogs are 9-6 in bowl games under coach Gary Patterson; the Stanford Cardinal are 4-2 in bowls under coach David Shaw. In one of the more intriguing matchups of this bowl season, Stanford takes on TCU in the Alamo Bowl on Thursday, December 28 in San Antonio.

College football point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as two-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.6-26.2 Horned Frogs (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Stanford Cardinal can cover the spread

The Cardinal started just 1-2 this season, then won eight of their next nine games, beating Washington and Notre Dame along the way, capturing another Pac-12 North title. They then lost a tough one in the Pac-12 championship game to USC 31-28.

Nonetheless, Stanford is playing in a bowl for the ninth season in a row.

The Cardinal trailed the Trojans in that conference title tilt three times by double digits and each time pulled to within three points. They also had a chance to take the lead midway through the fourth quarter but got stuffed on a fourth-and-goal from the USC 1-yard line.

So Stanford is 9-2 this season against teams other than Southern Cal. The Cardinal are also 5-2 in games KJ Costello has taken the majority of the snaps at quarterback.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Frogs started 7-0 this season, lost two of three, then won their last two games to secure a spot in the Big 12 championship game. There TCU fell to Oklahoma 41-17 but nonetheless made a bowl for the third straight season.

The Frogs trailed the Sooners in that conference title tilt 17-0 in the second quarter, pulled to within 17-14 but came up empty from there. So TCU is 0-2 against College Football Playoff-bound Oklahoma this season, 10-1 against everybody else.

TCU has also outrushed eight of its last 10 opponents.

Smart pick

TCU owns short statistical edges on both offense and defense, but Stanford played a slightly tougher schedule. Also, Cardinal running back Bryce Love was hampered by sore ankles late this season, but four weeks off should help. This one should be close, but ultimately the betting value probably resides with the underdog Cardinal.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in eight of TCU's last nine games.

TCU is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games in the postseason.

Stanford is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games after a loss.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.