Hawaii Bowl Odds: Houston vs. Fresno State Betting Pick, Analysis

Following a great one-season turnaround, the Fresno State Bulldogs are back in a bowl for the first time in three seasons. But the Bulldogs are also 0-6 both straight up and against the spread over their last six bowl appearances. Can Fresno State cap off its fine season by snapping that skid against the Houston Cougars in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve in Honolulu?

College football point spread: The Cougars opened as 1.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 31.4-29.2 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Houston Cougars can cover the spread

The Cougars began their first season under new coach Major Applewhite with four wins in their first five games, lost two straight in October, then won four of their last five, including a 24-14 decision over Navy in their finale one month ago. So Houston is playing in a bowl for the fifth straight season.

The Cougars trailed the Midshipmen at the half 14-7, then won the second half 17-0 and covered a six-point spread. On the day, Houston outgained Navy 380-291, as the defense held the Midshipmen to just 79 second-half yards.

The Cougars lost their top two quarterbacks to injuries this season, but third-stringer D'Eriq King has performed admirably in deep relief, hitting on over 70 percent of his throws for over 800 yards in his three recent starts, running for 200 more. Houston is 2-1 both SU and ATS in King's starts.

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs can cover the spread

The Bulldogs won just one game last year, then went 9-4 this season, their first under new coach Jeff Tedford, and nearly won a conference championship. Fresno State started 1-2, then won eight of its last 10 games, including their last four in row. The Bulldogs beat Boise State in their regular season finale but then fell to that same Broncos outfit in the Mountain West championship game in Boise, 17-14.

However, they covered that game as 10-point dogs. In fact, Fresno State is one of the best teams in college football to bet on this season, going 10-2-1 ATS.

The Bulldogs led that MWC title tilt up in Boise 14-10 well into the fourth quarter but gave up a 90-yard touchdown drive and could not respond. Fresno State has outgained seven of its last 10 opponents and outrushed eight of its last 10 foes.

Smart pick

Motivation may play a factor in this game. Houston probably hoped for better than second place in the AAC West this season and a third-tier bowl, while Fresno State is probably elated just to be here. Smart money bets the Bulldogs.

College football betting trends

Fresno State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games after an ATS win.

The total has gone under in Fresno State's last nine games.

Houston is 1-3 ATS in its last four games after an ATS win.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.