NFL Predictions Week 15: Picks and Projections for Top Underdogs' Upset Bids

When it comes to NFL Week 15 lines, the mid-week offerings seem like the sweet spot. 

With pretenders looking to play the spoiler and injuries suffered by Carson Wentz and others skewing the outlook, it makes sense for would-be bettors to bide their time before striking on adjusted opening lines. 

Especially this week, where several contests come in at double-digit margins and few outrights boast close lines. Big gaps in spreads can make it tougher to pick games, and the presence of two Saturday games makes things even more complicated. 

Starting with a Thursday game between miserable teams and stretching on through Monday, here's the full slate and how oddsmakers feel about each affair. 

NFL Week 15 Matchups, Odds

Denver (-2.5) at Indianapolis | O/U 40.5

Chicago at Detroit (-6.5) | O/U 44

L.A. Chargers (-2) at Kansas City | O/U 46

Arizona at Washington (-4.5) | O/U 43.5

Baltimore (-7) at Cleveland | O/U 40

Cincinnati at Minnesota (-11) | O/U 42

Green Bay at Carolina (-2) | O/U 45

Houston at Jacksonville (-11.5) | O/U 39.5

Miami at Buffalo | O/U

N.Y. Jets at New Orleans (-15.5) | O/U 47

Philadelphia (-8) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 40

L.A. Rams at Seattle (-1.5) | O/U 48

New England (-3) at Pittsburgh | O/U

Tennessee at San Francisco (-2) | O/U 44

Dallas (-3) at Oakland | O/U 46

Atlanta (-6) at Tampa Bay | O/U 48

Chicago at Detroit (-6.5)

Bettors will certainly take what they can get when it comes to upset material and it doesn't get much better than this out of the NFC North. 

The Detroit Lions have lost two of their last three with the only win coming against a downtrodden Tampa Bay Buccaneers team by just three points. The Chicago Bears have only won one of their last six, but the win was a dominant 33-7 showing on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals. 

There, rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky showed signs of progress, gunning for 271 yards and a touchdown while his defense kept A.J. Green in check and forced two turnovers. He hit Kendall Wright for 10 catches and rookie tight end Adam Shaheen for four, one of which went for a score. 

"Yeah, we just need to spread the ball around," Trubisky said, according to ESPN.com's Jeff Dickerson. "We've got a lot of great weapons on offense. Adam, Dion [Sims] -- they're big tight ends, and we've just got to continue to utilize them and spread the ball around with our receivers."

It's bad news for the Lions, a team that hardly squeaked past the Bears back in Week 11, 27-24. There, the Lions coughed up 222 yards and a pair of scores on the ground, needing a gaudy 299 yards and two touchdowns with only 10 incompletions from Matthew Stafford to get by. 

This Bears running game is every bit as potent right now and Trubisky looks like an improved player, whereas the Lions have looked rough since the last time these two met. A spread of almost a touchdown here screams for an upset as the worse team looks to not only keep building momentum toward the future but also play the spoiler to Detroit's slim playoff outlook given the strength of the NFC. 

Prediction: Bears 23, Lions 20 

L.A. Rams at Seattle (-1.5)

So they meet again. 

Back in Week 5, the Seattle Seahawks visited the Los Angeles Rams and escaped with a 16-10 win. It seemed like business as usual, with Jared Goff throwing a pair of interceptions and Russell Wilson throwing a score to Jimmy Graham before holding onto the lead the rest of the way. 

Then the Rams went on to win six of their next eight and seize control of the NFC West. 

One can see why the line is so small here. Seattle has been an up-and-down team since, the past two weeks are a perfect example—they whipped the Philadelphia Eagles 24-10, then turned around and lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 30-24. In the latter, the defense lost stars like Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright to injuries. 

Oddly enough, Goff will in large part decide the outcome of this one. He's thrown 13 touchdowns with two interceptions over his last six outings and is helped along by Todd Gurley's efforts on the ground. These Rams are 7-0 when Gurley touches the ball more than 20 times, so it isn't hard to see how the Rams will approach the game on the road. 

And the Seahawks haven't been invincible at home by any means, not after letting both Washington and Atlanta escape CenturyLink Field with wins. 

This line might eventually swing, though most will have a hard time ignoring the allure of Seattle at home. But these Rams can taste a divisional crown and a proverbial passing-of-the-torch moment. They're also healthier and specifically built to beat the Seahawks, so look for Goff to make some plays at the tail end of a defensive-minded affair to steal this one. 

Prediction: Rams 24, Seahawks 23

New England (-3) at Pittsburgh

Here's an interesting one—the New England Patriots are road favorites over a Pittsburgh Steelers team simply finding ways to win games. 

Perhaps even odder is the fact the Patriots enter this one coming off a 27-20 loss to the 6-7 Miami Dolphins while Tom Brady struggled his way to 233 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Add to this the fact it was a Monday night game, meaning the Patriots have a short week to turn around and hit the road before playing a team like the Steelers. 

This Pittsburgh team is sitting on 11 wins and hungry for a chance to lock up home-field advantage. They came off a short week after a brutal game against Cincinnati and cleaned up against the Baltimore Ravens in 39-38 fashion in Week 14 with Ben Roethlisberger throwing for 506 yards and two touchdowns. 

Still, one can see historically why this line isn't going far in either direction, per ESPN Stats & Info:

One could argue the Steelers won't be able to stop Brady, which is likely considering the Patriots have put up 30 or more points six times this year. But we're talking about a loaded Steelers offense that just put up 39 points on a unit allowing 18.9 points per game. 

At home, look for the Steelers to sit on the ball with Le'Veon Bell, who scored twice against Baltimore. Oddsmakers aren't buying Brady and the Patriots as underdogs and the Steelers won't either, not at home riding an eight-game tear and with the realization that a win against a team they'll likely see again in the playoffs could mean two or more weeks to rest up and get healthy. 

It's December, so Big Ben and the Steelers putting up monster games against any and all comers applies here. 

Prediction: Steelers 30, Patriots 27

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.