Week 15 NFL Picks: Vegas Betting Odds, Over/Under Spreads and Line Projections

Welcome to one of the toughest battles those making NFL picks and playing odds will face—NFL Week 15. 

Glancing at the lines below, oddsmakers have gone huge in a handful of contests, including a whopping 15.5-point spread. Several games are well north of seven-point spreads and a few are up over 10 as those in charge of the lines settle into a comfort zone. 

Making things even more intimidating is the simple fact this is upset season. Bad teams aren't anything but bad this time of year in the bitter cold and elements, but that doesn't change the fact that playing the spoiler can turn into a Super Bowl for downtrodden teams. 

This leaves bettors with an opening to capitalize on overzealous lines, though finding them correctly is one of the toughest tasks of the year. Here's the full slate.

NFL Week 15 Matchups, Odds

Denver (-2.5) at Indianapolis | O/U 40.5

Chicago at Detroit (-6.5) | O/U 44

L.A. Chargers (-2) at Kansas City | O/U 46

Arizona at Washington (-4.5) | O/U 43.5

Baltimore (-7) at Cleveland | O/U 40

Cincinnati at Minnesota (-11) | O/U 42

Green Bay at Carolina (-2) | O/U 45

Houston at Jacksonville (-11.5) | O/U 39.5

Miami at Buffalo | O/U

N.Y. Jets at New Orleans (-15.5) | O/U 47

Philadelphia (-8) at N.Y. Giants | O/U 40

L.A. Rams at Seattle (-1.5) | O/U 48

New England (-1) at Pittsburgh | O/U

Tennessee at San Francisco (-2) | O/U 44

Dallas (-3) at Oakland | O/U 46

Atlanta (-6) at Tampa Bay | O/U 48

L.A. Chargers (-2) at Kansas City 

Simms & Lefkoe Podcast: Are the Chargers a Playoff Threat to the Patriots?

This isn't a case of "we've been down this road before." 

The Kansas City Chiefs demolished the Los Angeles Chargers back in Week 3, 24-10. Alex Smith threw a pair of touchdowns, rookie breakout back Kareem Hunt ran for 172 yards and a score and Philip Rivers tossed three interceptions. 

Since? The Chargers are 6-3, the Chiefs 4-6. 

The Chiefs are one of the strangest stories in football after starting 5-0, falling off the map as defenses figured out Hunt and forced Smith to beat them with his arm. Meanwhile, Rivers has morphed into a borderline MVP contender while only losing games on the road to contenders like New England and Jacksonville. 

Former offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz put it best: 

The biggest divide between these teams is Rivers, who over his last four games has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. He's thrown seven picks on the year overall and has a defense behind him sitting second in the league with 17.3 points allowed per game. 

This Los Angeles pass rush boasting 37 sacks will give Smith and the Chiefs problems for most of Saturday night. These Chargers have playoff ambitions after playing the best teams in the conference well, whereas the Chiefs look like a team thinking about turning toward the future at quarterback. The disparity will show as Rivers guides L.A. to an efficient win. 

Prediction: Chargers 27, Chiefs 20

Cincinnati at Minnesota (-11)

Sticking a fork in the Cincinnati Bengals might not even get much of a reaction.

These Bengals are 5-8 with a head coach in Marvin Lewis seemingly on his way out the door given the lack of the usual contract extension the team has given him for more than a decade. The latest debacle was a 33-7 home loss to a three-win Bears team led by a rookie quarterback, meaning the team's only wins since the start of November have come against miserable Denver and Cleveland teams. 

The narrative is quite a bit different surrounding the Minnesota Vikings, a team that has won eight of its last nine to get to 10-3. 

In fact, said narrative is quite impressive considering Vikings coaches have quarterback Case Keenum completing 66.8 percent of his passes for 2,983 yards and 18 touchdowns against seven interceptions. 

Stats don't tell the whole story here, though: 

The Vikings are simply the better team and have lost just once at home this season. The Bengals, on the other hand, seem like a team headed for dramatic change. One week removed from playing without injured stars like Vontaze Burfict, Dre Kirkpatrick and Joe Mixon, it's hard to imagine the Bengals will have them all on the field again in what is essentially a meaningless game. 

At home, look for the Vikings to beat the Bengals at their own game, riding a run-first approach. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer not only has the better team, he's likely familiar with how to slow a Bengals team whose defense he led until 2013. 

Prediction: Vikings 24, Bengals 14

N.Y. Jets at New Orleans (-15.5)

Though it seems gigantic, this one could get as ugly as the line suggests. 

The New York Jets hit the road for the second week in a row after a 23-0 loss to the Denver Broncos. Normally this wouldn't sound so shocking, yet this is 2017, where the Jets were a surprisingly strong team for a stretch there and the Broncos are 4-9. 

One thing 2017 hasn't changed? The potency of a Drew Brees-led New Orleans Saints, a team 1-2 over its last three but 9-4 outright and still thinking about playoff positioning in the competitive NFC. 

“We still control everything, and that’s what you want late in the season,” Saints left tackle Terron Armstead, said, according to ESPN.com's Mike Triplett. 

It's hard to blame the Saints for their two recent losses considering they came at the hands of potential contenders the Los Angeles Rams and Atlanta Falcons, both on the road and both by six points or less. 

Brees, owner of a 71.7 completion percentage with 19 touchdowns against six interceptions, is still playing quality football and breakout rookie running back Alvin Kamara should be back on the field for this game after suffering a concussion in the Saints' Thursday night loss. 

The injury news isn't as positive for the Jets, who won't have starting quarterback Josh McCown on the field for the rest of the year due to injury. This leaves the offense in the hands of Bryce Petty, who over 142 career attempts as a pro has thrown three touchdowns and seven interceptions. 

Not exactly a winning recipe against Brees and the Saints at home, so don't laugh at this line too much—the Saints are angry after a loss to a rival and get to take out those frustrations at home while padding a playoff resume. 

Prediction: Saints 30, Jets 7

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.