Las Vegas Bowl Odds: Oregon vs. Boise State Betting Pick, Analysis

It's the 10-year anniversary for the Boise State Broncos of their epic upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. However, the Broncos are only 6-7 SU and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against Power 5 opponents. Boise State takes another shot at one of the big boys when it meets the Oregon Ducks in the Las Vegas Bowl on Saturday afternoon in Sin City.

College football point spread: The Ducks opened as five-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 32.8-29.2 Broncos (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Oregon Ducks can cover the spread

The Ducks struggled through a 2-5 stretch through the middle of the season but rallied to win their last two games, including a 69-10 drubbing of rival Oregon State in the Civil War game. Oregon jumped out to a 17-0 first-quarter lead on the Beavers and pushed that to 62-7 midway through the third quarter, breezing from there for the win and the cover as 25-point favorites.

On the night, the Ducks outgained Oregon State 577-211, outrushed the Beavers 311-98 and won the turnover battle 3-0.

Oregon is now 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS this season in games Justin Herbert started at quarterback, 1-4 both SU and ATS in games he didn't.

The Ducks just lost head coach Willie Taggart to Florida State but retained continuity with the promotion of offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal to the head job.

Why the Boise State Broncos can cover the spread

After losing their regular-season finale to Fresno State, the Broncos bounced back and beat those same Bulldogs in the Mountain West championship game 17-14. Boise State trailed Fresno State well into the fourth quarter but drove 90 yards for the go-ahead touchdown with five minutes to go and held on from there.

On the evening, the Broncos outgained the Bulldogs 364-309. So they've now outgained six of their last seven opponents and outrushed six of their last nine foes, helping them go 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS their last nine times out.

Boise State is also 2-0 ATS this season when getting points on the betting spread.

Smart pick

Oregon is a machine with Herbert at QB, averaging better than 50 points per game. Meanwhile, Boise State could be without leading rusher Alexander Mattison, who had to leave that MWC title contest with an injured leg. Smart money here bets the Ducks.

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in five of Boise State's last seven games after an ATS loss.

Boise State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after a win.

Oregon is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games after a win.

All college football odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.